The only possibilities for the BCS CG are Ohio St/Michigan and Ohio St/USC. The voters made their statement on Sunday. Florida nor Arkansas have any chance to overtake Michigan. Neither will overtake Michigan in the computer polls and the voters won't help either SEC team enough to compensate for that. Best that they can hope for is a solid #3 in the computer polls behind a solid #2 Michigan, which means they have to be voted a fairly solid #2 ahead of Michigan (basically 2 out of every 3 voters have to give the nod to the SEC team over Michigan) in the human polls to overtake them, and that just won't happen after witnessing Sunday's voting. Florida State picked a bad year to be mediocre. That's what is really hurting any chance for Florida at this point. They needed 2 more big wins, not just 1. One remote possibility, and it is remote, is that either Arkansas totally destroys both LSU and Florida or Florida destroys Arkansas, then the SEC Champ could sneak in. I don't see either of those 2 scenarios taking place. Even if it did, the voters would have to elevate the SEC Champ in the manner described above. Notre Dame will not be voted ahead of Michigan in the polls should they beat USC (since they lost to Michigan in a route). They are out of contention as well. Ok, so now that we took care of that, let's examine the likely candidates for the at-large bids. If it's an Ohio State/USC BCS CG, then Michigan will automatically get an at-large berth to the Rose Bowl. That leaves 3 at-large bids open. If it's Ohio State/Michigan, USC gets an automatic PAC-10 champ berth to the Rose Bowl, still leaving 3 at-large bids open (Michigan can be thought of as an at-large to the BCS title game, sounds strange, but its essentially true). To be eligible for an at-large, you must have 9 wins and finish in the top 14 in the BCS rankings. In addition, a team who finishes either #3 or #4 in the BCS and who is from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion (i.e., Big 10, Pac-10, SEC, Big East, ACC, Big 12) automatically gets in as an at-large. Finally, only 2 teams from a single conference can be chosen as BCS participants. At-large possibles: Boise State Louisville/WVU/Rutgers Notre Dame Florida Auburn California Oklahoma LSU 8 teams with 3 spots available (I am only counting 1 Big East team above who doesn't win the Big East...Florida losing to Arkansas puts Arkansas in the Sugar as SEC champs and Florida as a possible at-large...Arkansas has no shot as an at-large should they lose to LSU) Here is what to hope for: 1. Boise State losing to Nevada: believe me, if Boise State loses this game, the voters will drop them so fast, Boise St. won't know what him them. They will truly be blue. Done. Finished. Caput. 2. Big East conundrum: it's messy at this point because the winner of the conference is so much in the air. If Louisville loses to Pittsburgh this weekend, then no Big East team will likely get an at-large (Rutgers/WVU winner will go in as Big East champ, loser is out of the BCS picture as well as Louisville). That would be huge. Preferably WVU beats Rutgers and gets automatic conference bid, just to be sure (vs. Rutgers winning conference and then worrying if a 2 loss WVU might get an at-large). 3. Wisconsin: they have no chance. Only 2 teams from a single conference can go to BCS bowl games. Ohio State and Michigan are already guaranteed to get in. 4. Notre Dame: If they win, they are automatically in. If they lose, I still think they will get picked, with only 2 losses. Notre Dame is "almost" assured of an at-large at this point. Best scenario is for USC to blow out Notre Dame just as Michigan did, showing everyone that Notre Dame is overrated (which is what many suspect). They haven't beaten anyone up to this point. To lose badly to the only 2 tough teams on their schedule would likely rule them out of BCS contention. 5. SEC conumdrum: With an LSU win over Arkansas and then an Arkansas win over Florida, LSU would be assured of being the highest ranked SEC team in the BCS. That's a definite, but assures LSU of nothing unfortunately. Best bet scenario is for Arkansas to lose to Florida to get Arkansas completely out of the picture. Florida goes in as automatic SEC Champ (not an at-large). If Arkansas wins, then Florida is in the mix (top 14 in the BCS) along with LSU as an at-large. Only 1 other team besides the SEC Champ can be taken as an at-large. Auburn is going to be eligible (currently #12 in BCS) but I doubt seriously Auburn would be taken over LSU as an at-large, even though Auburn beat LSU. 6. California: currently #19 in the BCS standings. Tennnessee will pass them in the BCS due to a boost in the computer polls (Cal plays a 1-10 team while Tennessee plays a 7-4 team). So that means Cal must pass 6 teams in the BCS. It's a long shot, but it could happen. They already got a shot in the arm with Boston College losing last night to Miami. Texas also lost today to A&M. That leaves 4 teams to lose out of this list: Oklahoma, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Boise State, Tennessee. California also needs USC to win and go to the BCS CG. If that happens and Cal ends up #14 or higher in the BCS, the Rose Bowl in all likelihood would pick Cal to play Michigan (traditional PAC 10 vs. Big 10 obligation kicks in). It's a very long shot. 7. Oklahoma: currently 15th in the BCS. Should they beat Oklahoma State they will in all likelihood finish in the top 14 in the BCS and therefore qualify as an at-large. I don't see them getting picked over LSU, however. A Texas loss to A&M puts Oklahoma controlling their own destiny and a chance at a Big 12 Championship. They would no longer be in the running for an at-large. Here are my biggest games in order of importance: 1. Florida beating both Arkansas and FSU (Avoids a Florida/LSU battle for an at-large...avoids WVU getting automatic at-large) 2. Nevada beating Boise State (definitely out, otherwise a Boise State win and they are automatically in) 3. Pittsburgh beating Louisville (definitely out and almost assures that no Big East team will get an at-large) 4. USC demolishes Notre Dame (Notre Dame could be out, otherwise a Notre Dame win and they are automatically in) 5. Rutgers or South Florida beating WVU (prevents any chance of WVU ending up #4 in BCS, WVU probably out) Boise State is a most critical game since a Boise State win guarantees them a BCS at-large berth. A Boise State loss and they are out of the picture. Ironically, in 2003 we needed Boise State to beat Hawaii in order for LSU to barely edge out USC for #2 in the BCS (anybody who remembers probably stayed up until 1 AM watching that game). If Boise State and Notre Dame automatically get in with wins, then chances get real dicey for LSU. Only one spot would remain with LSU, with a Big East team (Louisville or WVU) and Florida in the mix potentially. So 2 of the first 4 events above would have to take place to essentially guarantee LSU a spot. Our best chance based on likelihood is USC beating Notre Dame (soundly?) and Florida winning out. Yes LSU fans, we must root for USC in that case. Yes, we'll have to hear for an entire month how USC is going for a national title for the 4th straight season (that would be very painful to take, I know). Even in that case, Notre Dame is more than likely hanging on for dear life at #12/#13 in BCS and LSU would be #5/#6. Could a bowl still take Notre Dame? Yes, sadly. Will that happen, I don't think so. Florida winning out assures that WVU would not finish as high as #4 in the BCS, which would otherwise automatically get them in as an at-large. Also, if USC beats Notre Dame, Michigan will finish #3 in the BCS, thus getting the automatic bid. Even if WVU ends up 4th in the BCS, only one team is allowed to get an automatic bid should they finish either 3rd or 4th in the BCS. Yet another reason a USC win is big. Note: Should USC lose to both ND and UCLA, USC still goes in as automatic PAC-10 champ to the Rose Bowl. Scenario where LSU (and everyone else for that matter) would be out: Boise State wins out Louisville wins out WVU wins out Notre Dame beats USC Florida loses to either FSU or Arkansas Michigan, Boise State, Notre Dame and WVU get all 4 at-large berths automatically. Scenario where LSU is guaranteed an at-large berth: {WVU loses to either South Florida or Rutgers} AND {USC loses to either Notre Dame or UCLA} AND {Florida loses to either FSU or Arkansas} LSU would finish no worse than 4th in the human polls and 4th in the BCS (automatic at-large). The key component here is Michigan must finish #2 in the BCS and play for the BCS NC. If Michigan should fall to #3 in the BCS, they would garner the automatic bid. Even if LSU should finish #4 in the BCS, LSU would not get an automatic bid. The BCS rules allow for only 1 team to get an automatic berth that finishes either 3rd or 4th in the BCS, not both. If the USC loss is to Notre Dame (but USC in turn beats UCLA), then the USC loss would probably have to substantial (10 pts or more) to avoid USC finishing #4 in the BCS ahead of a #5 LSU. Note: Same thing holds true in the event WVU finishes #3 in the BCS and LSU #4 (USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Arkansas all lose), WVU would get an automatic berth but LSU would not. LSU would contend with Notre Dame for that last remaining berth (assuming Boise State wins...otherwise both LSU and Notre Dame would be in).
The scenario above assumes LSU beating Arkansas. Given that, Florida's chances are out the window to play for an NC, since Arkansas will be somewhere around 12th/13th ranked and Florida a prohibitive favorite in the SEC CG at that point. A Florida win over Arkansas will not be impressive enough to the voters to put them in as a solid #2 ahead of Michigan, and also will not give Florida the needed boost in the computer polls (its still debatable if a stronger Arkansas would even help enough). Florida State having a horrible year is the other backbreaker.
On the LSU post game show someone said that the Orange Bowl has contacted LSU and that if LSU beats Ark and UF beats Ark then the Orange will take LSU.
I can definitely believe that. That would mean LSU would be chosen over WVU, given that both are eligible. WVU potentially would be #5 BCS and LSU #6. I just wonder if what you said means that if Florida should lose to Ark, then either Orange is forced to take WVU (#4 in BCS) or they would select Florida over LSU since both would be eligible for at-large. That's what I worrry about most is someone like the Orange selecting Florida over LSU. Go Gators! win out, please.
btw I think that Jimmy Ott said that he was talking to Skip in the press box Saturday and got this infor from him... I haven't seen this anywhere else.
From the BCS site: All teams earning automatic berths must be selected. No more than two teams from any single Conference may play in BCS games in a single year, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large picks. It says nothing about the championship game.
You're correct. Thanks for the input. I corrected that part. More interesting info: starting in 2008, between 5 and 7 conferences will get automatic berths as champions (no longer set at 6). They will be using mathematical standards of performance based on the 2004-2007 seasons and what teams from these various conferences have done. So basically, the Big East could be screwed out of a automatic berth and only the 5 conferences get it. I don't see where a 7th conference would be strong enough from 2004-2007 to promote their conference champ as an automatic berth.
They don't really expound on this issue, just indicating that there no longer will be an exact 6 conference champs automatically going anymore starting in 2008.
