LSU's BCS Bowl chances: games that matter

Here are the games that matter, the time and channel, and the outcome we desire (in bold)

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Florida at Florida State...........11:00 AM......ABC
South Florida at W. Virginia.....11:00 AM......ESPN2
Syracuse at Rutgers..............11:00 AM......ESPNU
Virginia at Virginia Tech..........11:00 AM......ESPN Gameplan
Kentucky at Tennessee..........11:30 AM......ESPN Gameplan
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State....1:30 PM.......NO TV (as of yet)
Louisville at Pittsburgh.............2:30 PM......ESPN
Georgia Tech at Georgia...........2:30 PM......CBS
Boise State at Nevada.............3:15 PM......ESPN 2
Wake Forest at Maryland..........6:45 PM......ESPN
Notre Dame at USC..................7:00 PM......ABC

Florida winning on Saturday keeps open the option of them either winning or losing in the SEC CG (possibility we may want them to lose if WVU loses one of its last 2 games). If Florida loses on Saturday then it's critical that either USC wins or Boise State loses. If Florida loses (either of their next 2 games), USC loses (either of their next 2 games), Boise State wins, then WVU must lose. Otherwise Michigan, Notre Dame, WVU and Boise State walk away with the 4 at-large bids.

I can't foresee LSU overtaking WVU in the BCS, unless the voters just fall in love with our victory over Arkansas (which I highly recommend they do, cuz it wasn't easy). LSU would have to take a commanding lead over WVU in the voters polls to compensate for WVU ultimately being ahead of LSU in the computer polls in the end. A crappy performance by WVU in a close win over South Florida could go a long way to that end.

USC winning out VIRTUALLY assures LSU of playing Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
USC losing one of its last 2 games and Florida winning out VIRTUALLY assures LSU of playing USC in the Rose Bowl.

Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest all winning is to prevent California from sneaking back into the top 14 in the BCS. In that event, the Rose Bowl could very easily pick Cal to play Michigan, should USC win out. It's a long shot, but the chance is still out there, so we might as well quash it. Texas and Boston College have already lost (not good), so I don't take this situation too lightly.

Rutgers is a bit of a problem. On the one hand if they lose then Cal's chances at reaching the top 14 looks just that much better. On the other hand, I am assuming Rutgers to lose to WVU the following week, so we would just be delaying the inevitable. I figure we might as well de-value a potential WVU win over Rutgers as much as possible.

Come on, admit it, isn't the BCS fun?

I'm going to a sports bar so I can watch all 5 games starting before noon simultaneously. I hope they have ESPNU.

 

Notre Dame to win if we want to play USC in the Rose Bowl.

But then you run the risk of not playing in any BCS game should Florida lose either of its last 2 games and WVU and Boise State win out. That is a terrifying thought and somewhat likely. I don't trust Florida to win that Arkansas game, especially with them coming in with a heart wrenching loss to LSU. They are gonna beat the living crap out of Florida.

 

Yeah, Nutt's obviously a dick fan.

 

Hanigriff/graff? obviously is either A) lazy or B) not capable of grasping the entire picture, so he picked what appeared to be obvious. My guess is B.

I'll go ahead and give you Hanigriffgraff's pick of Florida and illustrate what I like to call a "tragedy" in the making.

Let me set this up so it's as easy to understand as possible (because this BCS crap can be quite confusing).

WVU is currently 7th in the BCS. The teams ahead of them are:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Notre Dame
6. Arkansas

Arkansas has lost.
W. Virginia is now 6th in the BCS.
Florida loses (as Hanigriffgraff desires).
W. Virginia is now 5th in the BCS.
W. Virginia wins out (they will be favored in both of their 2 remaining games).
Notre Dame upsets USC.
W. Virginia is now 4th in the BCS.

With a Notre Dame win, here is the final BCS standings:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Notre Dame
4. W. Virginia

Boise State (who is favored to beat Nevada) wins and gets an automatic berth for finishing in the top 12 of the BCS.

Michigan, Notre Dame, W. Virginia and Boise State take the 4 at-large bids. Everybody else is out.

That's the scenario I am trying to avoid. My point is just get LSU in the "available" column to be chosen as an at-large, and we will be taken by the Rose Bowl. Michigan or USC vs. LSU is a Rose Bowl's dream's delight.

The other thing I don't like about Florida losing is the Orange Bowl selecting Florida over LSU (a very real possibility). Why keep Florida in the mix for an at-large if a Florida win sends them to the Sugar as SEC Champs instead? Once you see that, you get how obvious it is for a Florida team winning out is of utmost benefit to LSU's chances.

I think USC will win out and prevent such a scenario. LSU/Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Get your tickets while they're hot!

This is my final BCS standings:

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. W. Virginia
5. LSU
6. Louisville
7. Wisconsin
8. Boise State? (if they win, but I don't know if these blue bastards can pull it off)
9. Florida
10. Auburn
11. Notre Dame
12. Oklahoma
13. Virginia Tech
14. Tennessee
15. California (too close for comfort of making the top 14)

LSU would be picked over W. Virginia to face Michigan in the Rose Bowl. W. Virginia, in this scenario can no longer get an automatic bid because Michigan would get it as a #3 team (the #4 team can't get automatically if the #3 team has already gotten an automatic bid). Louisville wins the Big East, WVU only gets in if Boise State loses.

BCS NC:....... Ohio State vs. USC
Rose Bowl:.... LSU vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl:...Big 12 Champ (Oklahoma) vs. Boise State/W. Virginia/Florida/Auburn (W. Virginia if Boise State loses)
Sugar Bowl:... Arkansas vs. Notre Dame/W. Virginia (probably Notre Dame, sadly enough)
Orange Bowl:..ACC Champ (Georgia Tech/Wake Forest/Maryland) vs. Big East Champ (Louisville)

Note: even though I don't want Florida to lose, I AM predicting them to lose to Arkansas. USC winning out saves the day for LSU getting to the Rose Bowl. I listed Florida and Auburn as possibilities for the Fiesta, in the event that Boise State loses. Sugar picks before Orange and Fiesta, so they obviously pick Notre Dame (slim chance they pickor W. Virginia). Orange picks Big East Champ (Louisville), Fiesta has Boise State if they win, otherwise a choice of W. Virginia, Florida or Auburn. I think they would pick W. Virginia. Florida's only chance is probably the Orange. Auburn has a snowball's chance in hell of getting picked.