LSU versus Troy ... one look at Troy ... Score predictions

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by ramah, Oct 21, 2004.

  1. ramah

    ramah Founding Member

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    2004 Troy Trojans (3-3)
    Troy, AL
    Massey: 73
    Offense: 133
    Defense: 27
    Schedule: 70
    PF-PA: 124-102
    Per Game: 20.7-17.0

    Remaining Schedule:
    E[W] = 3.10
    E[L] = 1.90
    P[undefeated] = 2.91

    09/04 at Marshall ( 69 3-3 ) 17-15
    09/09 Missouri ( 39 4-2 ) 24-14
    09/18 at New Mexico St ( 98 2-4 ) 18-22
    09/25 at South Carolina ( 29 5-2 ) 7-17
    10/02 Utah St (115 2-5 ) 49-21
    10/16 at Arkansas St ( 97 2-5 ) 9-13
    10/23 at LSU ( 17 4-2 ) [ 9 8.4 -25.8]

    They are 1-3 over their last 4 games and have never lost any game by more than 10 points ... but look at their schedule

    Massey ... 60.51 (LSU Power rating) + 2.89 (Home field) -44.82 (Troy Power)

    That adds up to a 64.4 (LSU) - 44.82 (Troy) = 20 point game

    Assume AR St was a fluke (LSU beat ASU 53-3, ASU beat Troy by 4) so, LSU 57-3 over Troy

    Use South Carolina as the best comparison for LSU ... Troy lost to USC at USC by 17-7

    USC defense is tough ... not as good as LSU's Dee ... Troy scores maybe 3

    LSU's Offense is ranked # 29 ... South Carolina is 65 ... LSU scores 24-27

    Add the intangibles ... Troy is demoralized and has lost two conference games and LSU is playing truly inspired football and will play tough for 60 minutes ... Matt Flynn gets his big chance this week ... to show his knowledge of LSU's Offensive system and make his statement against the decent run defense of Troy ... more TD passes to Early and XC :thumb:

    That's worth another 7-14 points ... use 10 as a median value ...

    LSU 35-3 (LSU 31-38, Troy 0-7)

    Could the Troy that showed against ASU show up here :lol: LSU 54, Troy 3

    Troy has a big OL and they run the FB. They have a small Dee Line but they have a VG DE (Ware) and are fairly quick ... They can hang with teams that are one-dimensional ... but can be toasted with speed ... esp the long pass

    NCAA Statistics ... Troy

    Rushing Offense ... Troy is ranked # 62 with 152 yards a game
    Passing Offense ... Troy is ranked # 111 with 133 yards a game
    Total Offense ... Troy is ranked # 109 with 285 yards a game
    Scoring Offense ... Troy "played up" early in the season ... ranks 85th

    Rushing Dee is 15th ... 100 yards a game ... against weak competition
    Pass Dee is 47th ... almost 200 a game ... against weak competition
    Total Dee ... Ranked 19th ... under 300 YPG allowed

    Their most impressive stat
    http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/Internet/national rankings/IA_teamscordef.html
    Scoring Dee ... Just behind LSU ... at # 23 (17 PPG allowed)

    Anyway,

    LSU 35, Troy 3














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  2. DDTigerFan

    DDTigerFan Back from the Dead

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    I say LSU wins 45-6.
     
  3. aztiger03

    aztiger03 Founding Member

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    LSU 51
    Troy 0
     
  4. LSUTyga73

    LSUTyga73 Football Connoisseur

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    LSU 42-10
     
  5. olVENICEdog

    olVENICEdog Founding Member

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    37-14 lsu
     

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