I never paid much attention in my ISDS classes (just hoped for big curves) and I'm trying not to get too excited about this whole BCS deal. However, I do remember one of those formulas they teach you on the first day. Being an optimist, I feel LSU has about a 75% chance of winning each of the last 3 games (individually) and a 50/50 shot at the SEC Championship game if they make it. That would give them a 42% chance of going 3-0 and only a 21% chance of 4-0 with a victory in Atlanta. Then, you still have to hope for upsets to happen with USC and Ohio St. Although all of the above could indeed happen, realize that there are a lot of things that have to go our way. The laws of probability are against but hopefully Cholly Mac can convince the football gods to help us out a little.
Yeah, I hear you on Mr. Probability. I'm just trying not to wet my pants yet with all the scenarios being thrown around. For the last couple of years with our program under Saban, a national championship in the future seemed possible. With the Sugar Bowl being in the rotation this year, it just seems too good to be true. I may pay attention some to USC and Ohio St. but I'll just be enjoying LSU football "one game at a time." Think I've heard someone say that before.
That is of course assuming all factors are equal. The odds of LSU beating say, Bama, should be much higher than them beating Ole Miss, based on records. There are way too many factors in each game to do something like that.
Yeah, there are definitely too many factors for that type of legitimate probability. Hell, I'm more nervous about Bama than Ole Miss for a number of reasons. One of which is that they might be a better team. Look at their losses, all close and to good teams (only team to play Oklahoma tough too). You know they'll be fired up. This is their last chance to salvage the season. My only point in all this was just because you SHOULD win every game doesn't mean you will. If LSU played their "B" or "C" game against L. Tech, they still win. Against Bama, Ole Piss, or the Prisonbacks, that won't happen. It's tough to play that many "A" games in a row. We're already coming off 3 straight. Another Law of probability.
The law(s) of probability are what oddsmakers use to set the lines. The universal appeal of sports is than anyone can win anytime.
Saban will PROBABLY kick their collective asses if they bring anything less than their A game to all the remaining games.
I agree with LSU99. I am much more concerned about Bama than Ole Miss; in fact, I'll be nervous all day Saturday. Haven't all of Bama's losses been to ranked teams? Let's see-OK,Ole Miss,UGA,UT,Arky (was ranked),Northern Illinois. I'm sorry fellow LSU fans, but I'm still having post traumatic stress syndrome over the Florida debacle. The Bama game is looking more and more like an ambush. I hope I'm wrong. I know we have a much better team, but so was the case against Florida.
TBay, I'm a huge bama fan, but I just can't see us beating LSU. If Bama hadn't whipped up on LSU last year, I would agree with you - this would be a trap for LSU. But LSU is going to be motivated, and is going to come out swinging. I think you guys beat us, and beat Ole Miss.. But Arky is a close call, I think the Arkansas game will be a potential trap for you - not the 'Bama game(I really, really, really hope i'm wrong - Roll Tide!).
What year in the sixties did you graduate? Probably smoking too much before and after class. LSU will be heavily favored (that means by 7+) each SEC Remaining game including the SEC Championship. Being a pessimist, I see LSU's chances as a helluva lot better than the Roulette scenario you've painted. Had you payed attention in class, and you didn't ... you're busted you'd have learned probability must be combined with results and properly correlated. Go tell someone who gives a flip, LOL Your 42% figure is bullshitttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt LSU has a 75% chance (your figures, not mine) in each game. Give the gamblers in Vegas a 75% winning shot and they'd close the town down in a week. Sure thing! Coll FB spreads/win percentages play out as follows: Above 31 points = 99+% chance Above 17 points = 95% chance 13-17 points = 90-95% chance 10-13 points = 80-90% chance 07-10 points = 70-80% chance 03-07 points = 60-70% chance 00-03 points = 50-60% chance Doubt it, try this week's games and keep stats. The spread for the games: LSU -09 at Alabama-------------------80% probability for win LSU -08 at Mississippi-----------------75+% probability for win LSU -17 vs Arkansas-------------------90% probability for win For Longshot Lovers and "Hope & Prayer" Artists, I recommend you rent the following video "Let it Ride" with Richard Dreyfuss. Simply put, LSU's Chances of winning out are: 75+%, or the poorest chance that is probably the Ole Miss game. Somebody get the net and throw it on Einstein here.
