Last day in Vegas before my flight to BR. Vegas is great. The weather is outstanding, the gaming is going "breakeven", and the golf is spectacular. I've spent the last couple of nights in the sportsbooks at Ceasars and Venetian respectively, catching the World Series and some college ball simultaneously. BTW - a sportsbook is a great place to watch a game if you've never tried it! I was surprised at how knowledgeable the staff was about SEC football. Here's what the sportsbook manager at Venetian told me regarding the AU-LSU game. He believes that Cadillac will not get 100 yards and that LSU will be able to successfully limit AU's rushing attack until late in the game. But he did say that he believes AU will surpass 250 yards passing, indicating that he believes they will not be able to put enough pressure on JC to keep him from "dinking 'em to death." He predicted a career number of attempts for Campbell. He said he believes the "Under" is the better bet than the 4 point spread, but he indicated that taking AU in the teaser was the best bet if you could identify other games you liked. Auburn was getting 8.5 points on the teaser, he felt it was a "lock." Hope he's right, since I took his advice.... War Damn Eagle & Geaux Tigers
LSU leads the SEC in sacks...I am sure they will get plenty of pressure on Campbell. Yes, I can see him getting career highs in attempts and throwing for well over 200 yds, but that would indicate that Auburn is seriously behind on the scoreboard. Neither team will abandon their running game in a close game. Only in a rout does one team start passing the ball more than usual.
Yes, I argued the same point with "Da Man" at sportsbook, especially since I have not seen JC perform well under heavy pressure so far this season. Ironically, he performed well under heavy pressure in big games last season - go figure, eh? Here's my summary , the stats based on a previous post prior to the LSU-S.Carolina game..... LSU's D does rank high, but those rankings do not take into account the strength of opponents - Auburn's opponents have been significantly stronger (AU 75.81/ LSU 68.87...source- Sagarin). So, I question whether the number of sacks LSU has piled up really mean pressure for JC. JMHO, but these two teams are alot alike: Team - YPG - PPG - Yds Allowed - Pts. Allowed LSU - 378 - 35 - 237 - 10.3 AU - 335 - 22 - 263 - 12 LSU has 1 quality win, AU has 2. QB's are similar. Here's where I see the big difference (IMHO)...... LSU has rushed for 105 and 56 yards respectivley against UGA & UF. I would be shocked if they can rush more than 60 yards total against Auburn's run-oriented D. Not to mention, LSU's OL is very weak at rushing between the tackles, and nobody runs successfully on the outside against AU - nobody. AU will force Mauck to pass - alot - and that is THE area of risk for LSU. AU's secondary is healed-up and I actually like the Hobbs (CB) matchup on Clayton - he manages well against physical receivers. Clayton had only 10 catches for 114 yards in the 3 games prior to SC. Green will be the one that AU fears at WO, but especially on punt/kick returns. AU will attack the frosh Landry at FS, liberally using the TE's in patterns down the slot. And don't forget that AU knows Jimbo Fisher extremely well. This game will likely come down to turnovers, and I like AU's chances there as well. AU has lost 5/8 fumbles while LSU has lost 8/14. Keys for Auburn : (1) Run the ball well early, take the crowd out of it, (2) minimize turnovers, (3) shutdown LSU's run and force them to a one-dimensional attack. Teams that have limited LSU's rushing attack have caused frustration, which has led to penalties (22 of 32 penalties came against UGA & UF) Keys for LSU: (1) Stop AU's rushing attack inside the red-zone, (2) get pressure on the QB - early & often, (3) use the kicking game to win the battle for field position. Summary: If Addai & Carey were 100%, and the O-line was just a smidge better at drive blocking, I'd say LSU would win handily. But without the run, LSU will be challenged to put enough points on the board. AU will run, control the clock, and use the kicking game to pin LSU deep. I predict a low-scoring game .... AU 17, LSU 13 in a great defensive, smashmouth struggle. WDE and Geaux Tigers !
This is the second time you have said that, and I am going to say that you got it ass-backwards again. Between the tackles is a strength, if anything. I know it will be tough to run outside, but c'mon, our OL isnt very weak at anything. Our lowest output so far this year has been the 105 and 56 yard performances against UGA & UF, as you said. I might be inclined to point out that Auburns lowest output was 43 and 40 yards against USC and GT, respectively. Im going to post some stats that are a little more telling in just a minute.
Maybe so, maybe not, but that is why I expressed that it was an opinion. I merely stated the facts that helped shape my opinion on the matter, and I do have an open mind, I just believe that LSU must win through the air, since the likelihood is low that they will have success on the ground. Stats can be very misleading. For example, both defenses are very highly ranked, with LSU ranking number 1 against the rush. But who have they piled up these impressive statistics on? LSU opponents rushing rank = La Monroe #81, Arizona #95, W.Illinois #51, Georgia #63, Mississippi State #78, Florida #62, S.Carolina #51. BTW - most of these are passing teams. Auburn is currently #14. Conversely, Auburn has put up strong rushing yardage against fairly weak teams at defending the run. UT #50, Ark #55, Vandy #89, MSU #100, W. Kentucky (Div.AA). Additionally, AU had less than 50 yds rushing against #9 USC and #19 Georgia Tech. So what does it mean? Probably nothing, but consider this..... LSU's run defense was achieved against teams averaging 27 rushing attempts per game and they will face an Auburn team that averages over 40 rushing attempts per game. If AU can run the ball against LSU, they WILL win going away. JMHO, but I don't believe that will happen. LSU will "sell-out" against the run and force JC to beat them in the air, something he hasn't proven so far this season. I still like AU's chances based on the reasons stated earlier in this thread. Should be a very memorable game......WDE
I'm not sure if you saw the South Carolina game, but Auburn isn't the only team with a deep backfield. Our numbers actually went up when Shy and Addai didn't play. So it doesn't matter who plays, the talent is still there...it just all depends on our line. If our line is blocking to their potential, watch out...If they are not, LSU could have their running game shut down. But I think with the line we have, we shouldn't have a problem...
I've no doubt that the youngsters are talented, but in a game like this one, experience will play a key role. These teams are so evenly matched, and both are motivated by a healthy rivalry......all it takes is one fumble, a single tipped ball, or a penalty at the wrong time and....Bang, game over for either team. By deep backfield, I assume your referring to Broussard & Co, but not much more depth with Addai & Carey at less than 100%. AU has the deepest quality backfield in college football - bar none. However, for the same reason I stated above (experience), LSU will likely see only Cadillac or Brown, who rarely fumble the football (knock on wood).
