With Kosovo's declaration of Independence on Sunday, Russia is demanding a special UN security council meeting with Serbia allowed to participate where they will protest the move, as well as gripe about US and EU support for the move. It looks like Russia is fed up with it's losing influence in Eastern Europe while NATO and the EU advance theirs. Could Kosovo cause Russia to draw a "line in the sand"? Like 1914, the Balkans once again prove to be a flashpoint for tension and conflict. Intersting how history repeats itself.
They may draw a line in the sand but they won't try to take it back. We have too much of a foot in the Balkans I feel. Then again, I could be proven wrong.
I do believe this will be the straw for the Russians and Putin. With the missle defense shields, Iran weapons conflict, and now the fake shooting the satillete out of the sky, which is really a weapons test I believe we are conducting. The Russians will probably make a bold move as they stated last week with aiming their missles at US bases abroad. Could get nasty in the coming months.
I agree, there isn't much they can do to reverse the move, but I sense Russia's frustration between this and the prospect of NATO anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe. If there are any other similar developments in the near future it is possible that they could say enough's enough. Putin is determined to bring back Russia's power to a level near the former Soviet Union's. Maybe not quite on par with the US, but definitely a step up from second-class. In order to do so, he can't afford many other developments like this. I'm not necessarily talking about armed conflict, but definitely a politcal and diplomatic "war" to try and reverse the current trend.
I do not believe there to be an armed conflict as well. Diplomatic and politically we have great experience with considering 30+ years of the cold war. In terms of ICBM's and the same, missiles on both sides never really stopped pointing at each other! You point what you have at the other which has the most. Makes since. Bottom line is simple; nobody wants the "morning after". It would be a stretch to even use tactical nukes outside of the possibility of a terrorist patsy. In the mid/ later 80's when I was in the Army, I was part of an escort team for weapons reduction and what we did was travel through small German communities and train the locals in responding to an accidental nuclide discharge, not an eruption just a leaker. Actual munitions never went through those towns! Every where we went there was the Bear in tow watching. Point is part of the treaty at the time was to "share" information in the dismantling efforts and all we did was decoy and lie to the other.
This isn't going to turn into a US/Russian military confrontation, just a political one. Neither side has anything to gain by fighting over Serbia. Russia is desperate to retain as many of the former allies as possible, having lost several of them already. Serbia has already lost Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and now Kosovo wants to break away. Kosovo has been a part of Serbia for a very long time and the ethnic Albanians that live there among the local Serbs are who are driving this. Serbia will fight over this matter. It's like the Sioux wanting to make South Dakota independent. The Russians will back them with political support and possibly munitions to retain a political ally, but they won't send military forces to confront the NATO and UN forces.
Not yet, I think. They are not strong enough to make a military move and Cuba '62 taught them not to overreach and have to back down. They are posturing to influence the US to back out of the eastern Europe missile defense sites. Premature for the reasons stated above. They can already hit US bases abroad and we know it. They aren't going to do it for the same reason they never have--it can't pay. They want to influence us, not alarm us into doing something rash. As for the satellite shoot-down . . . it's not a fake, but there is more going on than meets the eye. The satellite is a brand-new spy satellite that failed.. These birds are the biggest and heaviest satellites in the sky and major pieces of them have been know to survive re-entry. Highly classified imaging systems are aboard and we are not letting that fall into enemy hands. Forget the fuels aboard, that's a smokescreen, they wouldn't survive re-entry anyway. But the main hull with its camera and other secret sensors just might. This is why we are shooting it down. But there is another, more subtle matter happening. We have had the ability to shoot down satellites with big land-based ABM missiles since the 70's. We demonstrated in the 1980's that we could shoot down a low-orbiting satellite with a missile fired from a high-flying F-15. This will demonstrate that we can shoot down satellites with a relatively small naval surface missile. Think about it. The ocean covers 3/4 of the planet and the US navy controls the ocean. Now enemies must worry that the US can not only shoot down their satellites over its territory and its allies where it has air bases, but can essentially shoot down satellites from anywhere on the globe. Moreover, it demonstrates that that a missile that can take out a target in orbit is easily capable of taking out a hostile missile in boost phase, when it is traveling slowly. It is interesting that the Navy has stationed an AEGIS missile cruiser in the Sea of Japan constantly for two years now. Any North Korean ICBM would not make it into orbit.
Interesting take from the Russian point of view: http://english.pravda.ru/world/europe/104128-0/ While not likely to spark a direct confrontation between the US and Russia, Serbia may take matters into their own hands if they feel they have adequate backing from Russia. This story has faded from the media after the initial declaration, but I've a feeling we definitely haven't heard the last of it.
They know we aren't likely to get involved on the ground because we are overstretched by one ground war already. This must tempt them. And they know that our pussy allies in NATO will not act unless we are they doing the dangerous work. Still, they must worry about our airpower . . . Serbia has not forgotten that we defeated them with airpower alone and without a single US casualty in the last war.
