There is growing evidence that this may be a pandemic of major proportions. It’s not been contained in China and is popping up in places such as Italy where there is no apparent connection with previous contact. What will this do to the world economy if it continues to spread as it seems to be? This could precipitate an economic collapse more akin to 1929 than 2008. What if anything can be done to stop or ameliorate it’s impact? https://apple.news/AxTj_COFKQ3yRMFaPUK05LQ
Buying opportunity. Like politics, you have to look at the fundamentals. Sure, companies are heavily leveraged in China and now their own creation to kill protesters might just give Trump the victory sooner. I am heavily invested in tech. It is getting hammered these past few days. It isn't going to go anywhere. All you are seeing is short term movement. No logical way to see any long term negative outcomes. Honestly, China can afford to thin out some. Further I disagree about both the great depression and 2008. The US consumer, unless gets infected, is still spending.
Total infected is up to 80k reported cases (probably an inaccurate low number)which is double form last week. You wont stop the spread unless you stop travel and that ain't happening.
Correct if it is short term and contained as was MERS. Question is what if it actually becomes a pandemic? With 2% mortality rate that could mean over 100 million dead. More critically it seems to be overwhelming China’s medical services. What if it does the same world wide? The impact on commerce could be immense. The question is which is it minor irritant or major disruption?
In my view, it all depends on if the US gets hit. If not, 5-10% short term correction. Maybe 15 at the worst. Though I seriously doubt it. If the US gets anywhere near 10K deaths, probably would be 2009 levels of drop. I think it would cause a huge shift in US tech and where they are invested though. Sounds like China is doing is own travel ban, which is good. They have the most to lose in all of this.
More food for thought. What will this do to global sourcing and cost of goods? https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...?srnd=premium-middle-east&utm_source=url_link
2% mortality rate does NOT equate to 100 million people. It only means 2% of those who succumb to illness. You can be sure there are people who are contracting the disease who are asymptomatic, others with mild symptoms, and still others with moderate or severe symptoms. A few facts. - The actual mortality rate is unknown. - It’s likely less than 2%, as reporting rate for deaths is higher than that for infection. - The reported mortality rate is likely artificially higher due to the pathetic socialized medicine system in China. The current reported mortality rate of the Flu is a global figure, where as the mortality rate of CO19 is relegated to China. (WHO ranking 144/191). - The timing is late in the season, and it is not likely that the number infected will reach anywhere near the rate of the common Flu, which kills tens of thousands every year. - Due to the media hype, the containment measures have kept most all deaths etc confined to China. (Read somewhere all but 2 of the 1300 or so deaths are in China). Vigilance ... and undue worry and fretting are two different things. Unfortunately, the MEDIA deals in fear mongering. No doubt, the left is probably trying to figure a way to incorporate this outbreak into a reason to go with Bernie’s Medicare for All crap ...... all the while forgetting that CHINA has single payer.
I worry way too much about the corona virus, But look at it this way. Assume all 2500 fatalities are in Wuhan (they are not) but in a city of 11 million, that is .02% (.00022). I expect crossing the street is not a lot less risky. I also saw today that one drug appears to work, with many more in the pipeline.
