Iran referred to Security Council

Want to talk about resources? Have you looked at our military budget during the cold war?

"One estimate shows that some $8 trillion ($8,000,000,000,000) was spent, worldwide, on nuclear and other weapons between 1945 and 1996. At their peak, the world's nuclear stockpiles held 18 billion metric tons of explosive energy: 18,000 megatons. Today, they still hold 8,000 megatons. Compare these totals with the entire explosive energy released by all bombs dropped in the Second World War (6 megatons)" -- CNN: What the Cold War Cost.

By contrast the US spent $341 billion on World War II. Americans didn't build bomb shelters during World War II, but they did during the Cold War. The Cold War was the only superpower conflict in world history and the Soviet Union collapsed as a result. Proxy wars like Korea, Vietnam, and Yom Kipppur were fought all over the world. Superpower alliances were worldwide. Naval, space, and air surveilance was international in scope.

The Cold War was big. It was a world war in my book.

 

Lots of experts have been talking about it lately and a couple of thing become apparent.

Economic sanctions will not cripple them. They are the worlds second largest oil producer in a world mad for oil. They have the second largest oil reserves on the planet and a giant stash of cash reserves. Oil is a world commodity. The Chinese will buy Iranian oil and it frees up other oil for the West. Iran has been living with diplomatic and economic santions from a superpower for 25 years and they do not fear it.

Military strikes by the US could cripple nuclear production and delay it but could probably not elimnate it. They learned from the Israeli strike against Iraq and they have dispersed and hardened their nuclear facilities. And the overriding question regarding a pre-emptive strike is . . . What then?

The Japanese knew they could cripple the US fleet at Pearl Harbor, but what then? They didn't think it out very well and it proved to be a disaster. We knew we could defeat Iraq in 21 days and sack Baghdad, but then what? We didn't think it out very well and now it's a millstone around our neck.

It should be remembered that the current radical Iranian government was not elected in a landslide. There is a lot of dissent within Iran. We need to be doing things that drive the factions apart, not cause them to band together against us. Why risk US lives and money when we can let them kill each other? I think we will be trying to Isolate Iran and make Amadinijan look increasingly incompetent to his own people.

There already is an Islamic Bomb, you know. And we didn't bomb Pakistan to prevent it from happening, even though we are extremely unpopular in Pakistan. We let it happen because we needed Pakistan for other reasons--to pressure nuclear India for one.

In a strange way, Iran's building up its economic and military power plays into US hands in some areas. It is a volatile region and other countries in the area are not happy about a powerful Iran and are keepng ties with the US closer. We have seen this in the east as well. Japan and India have both moved closer to the US as a result of China's growing economic and military power.

If the United States is clever and lucky, we can play the Iranians like a harp and get everything we want. The key is diplomatic, military, and economic manipulation of the regional powers, playing them off against each other and maintaining our own best interests. "Speak softly and carry a big stick" was how Teddy Roosevelt put it.

But it will require patience, great intellect, keen perception, and prudence. These are not qualities which define the current US administration.