In the last two weeks, many of us, including myself, have assumed that LSU could make up the scant 15 point difference between LSU and USC in the AP poll should both win, since LSU should gather the OU 1st or 2nd place votes, among others. Unfortunately, we've all been incorrect in this assumption. Here are the current AP rankings: Rankings: End of Regular Season Expanded Rankings AP Poll RK TEAM RCS PTS PVS 1. USC (42) 11-1 1,595 2 2. LSU (21) 12-1 1,580 3 3. Oklahoma (2) 12-1 1,491 1 4. Michigan 10-2 1,437 4 The AP only publishes total first place votes and total points. Total points are determined by totaling 25 points for each 1st place vote, 24 points for each 2nd, and so on. Although the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. votes are not published, we can calculate the vote count by playing with the formula, the total 1st place votes and the total point total. By doing so, we discover that the vote count looks like this: School -- 1st place votes -- 2nd -- 3rd -- 4th USC -- 42 -- 16 -- 7 -- 0 (42*25+16*24+7*23 = 1595) LSU -- 21 -- 43 -- 1 -- 0 OU -- 2 -- 6 -- 43 -- 14 (this tell you that Michigan likely received 14 3rd place votes) Now for the reason for this post: Should USC and LSU each win and the 42 voters that previously voted USC #1 do so again, LSU would actually lose ground. Since USC and LSU would likely be the consensus top 2 teams and, thus, only receive votes for 1st or 2nd place, here's what the final tally would look like: USC -- 42 -- 23 -- 0 -- 0 -- 1602 total LSU -- 23 -- 42 -- 0 -- 0 -- 1583 total Because USC currently has more 3rd place votes than LSU (7 to 1) and that only 2 voters would swith first place votes from OU to LSU, LSU actually has less ability to increase its point total than does USC. The only way for LSU to pass USC should both win is for 10 voters to switch their 1st place votes from USC to LSU, giving LSU a 33-32 first place vote advantage and a 1 point victory in the AP poll.
It's not too unlikely that we finish first. We only need 10 out of 42 voters to switch their vote from usc to LSU. There's really no point even thinking about it until usc actually beats michigan, and then we still have to take care of OU.
The numbers you posted are accurate. And the projected numbers you posted are accurate as well. Therefore 10 voters would have to change their mind. This would not happen, because this would basically be admitting that they were wrong to put USC 1st over LSU in the first place. Michigan will beat USC anyway. So all this talk will go away.
First let's get by OU. They are pissed and have something to prove. THE worst thing that could have happened did. They got blown out in their final game. So they will definately be out for blood. On the other hand should USC and Mich play a very close game and LSU manhandles OU I could see swaying a few voters. The latter is by no means a prediction. I look for OU to be the toughest game LSU has EVER played.
You gotta love those buying into the Bill Finley New York Times crapshoot about the AP voters sticking with USC. Did they ever find those 19 "Missing" Pollsters? LOL ... they swept this farce under the rug. The HORSE is damned near dead now ... damned near. No team has ever been #1 AP and missed a BCS Championship game. Not until this year. No team has ever dropped from #1 in the AP after a win. The AP has never been this close between a #1 & #2 team after the final BCS poll. It's been a special year. The rules don't apply ... and everything isn't as it seems ... to take a quote from CFN.
I’d rather win the BCS National Championship, than that popularity contest anyday! With that said, go Michigan! Of course, Geaux Tigers!
Craig James' analysis: USC will be ready to play this game. The Trojans know they have a shot at a split national championship, although that's not a shoo-in, either. The writers may still go with the Oklahoma-LSU winner; you just don't know.
There was another article out ... saw it at another site ... where they called BS on the NYT article by Bill Finley ... and over 25 were seriously considering both teams ... and could vote either way
IMO I think Michigan will beat USC.......USC hasnt played anybody and are going to be surprised by Michigans balanced offense......... I see Michigan by 10........UM-31 USC-21
