would they have been in better shape in BCS standings? In other words, is it strategically better to have a loss by forfeit than an on the field loss in the eyes of poll voters and the BCS system? If so, the threat of forfeit might have been legitimate.
I can't imagine it how it would be better to forfeit, but the primary reason is what it would do to them in the SEC. A loss would require FL to lose 3 games in the SEC, GA to lose 2 (and not to FL, but to TN) and TN to remain undefeated for the rest of the season. Possible, but unlikely, certainly less than 50-50 imo. The circumstances that would allow a l loss (assuming BCS would ignore forfeit) team like TN to make the BCS would be extremely unlikely. You have to remember that they would only play 10 games if they don't make the SEC CG and this would put them at a disadvantage in the computers. As far as the BCS itself, I think voters would ignore the loss if they thought the forfeit was justified and they would have if the game was not moved. With the computers it depends on whether they count it or not. I think more than likely that if the game wasn't played, they wouldn't count it, just like they didn't count ASU as a home game for us. But again, this would be dependent on how the legitimacy of the forfeit was perceived. Regardless, TN would take a signficant hit on SOS, and be disadvantaged due to playing fewer games. IMO, it would be a dumb strategic move unless you felt you had no chance of winning at all and I don't think they think that.
The poll voters might have looked at it different, but the hit would be in the BCS poll, it still would put them with two L's and any outside chance of them making the Champ. Game would have been gone.
I doubt it. BCS also takes a look at how teams are doing in their conference standings. If Tennessee would have taken a forfeit, Florida would have to lose 3 SEC games to get beat out by Tennessee for a trip to the SEC CG. In reality, the next 4 games for Tennessee are all must-win games. (LSU-Ol' Miss-UGA-Alabama) And then the VOLS play Notre Dame, who beat them last year and have a better team this year. Fulmer probably just realizes that his chances of having a real good year are pretty bleak already.
The computer rankings will not be swayed by emotion. A loss is a loss unless some special weighting factor has been added that gives a forfeit a different characteristic than a loss. The human polls will be swayed by emotion, regional bias, and personal competence. Some will take a forfeit as slightly better than an ass-whipping on the field. Others will take a forfeit as worse than a loss since their reputation was not put on the line. Much will depend on whether the forfeit was due to an unavoidable disaster befalling the Tennessee team or simply a transparent attempt to avoid the game and force a postponement to a date when they are healthier and more experienced for a football advantage. LSU has been hit with a real disaster and has not forfeited any games yet. I think a forfeit would have given LSU additional reputation for prevailing in the face of adversity and would have labeled Tennessee as losers, quitters, and whiners. When Tennessee thought about it they came to the same conclusion and backed off of that forfeit story very quickly. :grin: Whoever is in charge of public relations in the Tennessee AD ain't doing his job very well. They have made one PR blunder after another.
The coordinator of the BCS said that the ASU game would count as a road game in the computers even though LSU was the designated home team.
Some of the computer polls give extra credit for winning road games in configuring how good a team is.
I know this; it's the reason I originally stated they didn't count ASU as a home game. My original point was that if the forfeit was perceived as justified, the the BCS would likely decide to go with what happened on the field (i.e. the game wasn't played so don't count the loss) just like they did with our game (i.e. that it was treated as a road game instead of a home game). What I'm trying to figure out is did you misread what I wrote wrt a home game or are you trying to tell me something else? The former is understandable given my quickly and poorly written original post. If the latter, you've got to try an alternative approach because whatever your point is, it's just whizzing by me.
