*mod edit* threads have been merged* ********************* I looked at the current BCS numbers and tried to figure out where LSU would land come Monday. I assumed LSU would slide up to #3 in both polls (very realistic) and I was VERY VERY conservative with LSU sliding up in each computer poll and figured Georgia would slide up one spot to increase LSU's quality win bonus to 0.2. Here's my guess... 1. Oklahoma 2.25 2. USC 5.85 3. Ohio State 8.68 4. LSU 10.08 TCU might be 5th in the BCS, but it could be Michigan or Florida State. Either way, there will be a HUGE gap after LSU. Florida sits in front of LSU in two of the computer polls. TCU sits in front of LSU in 3 (possibly 4) of the polls. Tigers need these teams to lose in order to gain some ground.
By the way, LSU's computer rankings should look like this.... A&H 5/6 Last week: 8 RB 5/6 Last week: 8 CM 5 Last week: 8 KM 4 Last week: 6 NYT 5 Last week: 8 Sag 6 Last week: 9 (this one will be dropped) PW 5 Last week: 7
BCS projection Does anyone know if there have been any true projections of how the BCS standing might change based on the possibile season ending records of teams that play the few teams (LSU, USC etc) in contention? IE some people are reacting to the BCS standings as they do other polls. If this were the AP, then USC would HAVE to lose for LSU to leap ahead of them. Humans just don't like knocking people back if they haven't lost. The BCS formula does't care about that though and it's possible I would think that the strength of schedule index could itself change the ranking. IE say USC wins out, but every opponent they ever faced this year loses the rest of their games. Suppose LSU wins out and every opponent they face this year wins out or nearly wins out as well, the exception being those who have yet to play LSU. Assume they win all the others except vs LSU. Could this not alter the SoS factor enought to vault LSU over USC in the end? Course, we could end up loosing to freaking Alabama and none of it matters. We've seen them lose focus before. : (
Other opponents winning out would depend on them playing each other also but you see my point. Assume the worst possible final records for all of USC's opponents and the best possible for all of LSU's opponents. What then?
I think every single BCS "expert" that I've seen/heard has said that LSU needs a lot of help to climb into the top 2. Of course, with Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Miami both losing, that helps a good bit. But USC, and probably Ohio State, need to lose as well, from what I've heard.
