Does This Guy Rock or What: Must-See BCS Info (11/25 Updates by Rich Tellshow)

TejasTiger · Nov 25, 2003

Cool! By the way, this guy does great work and is quick to reply to my BCS questions. Next time you go to his site, make a donation as a way to show your appreciation (http://www.geocities.com/rtell/body.html).

Nov 25: I have taken a closer look at some key game's effect on the sos for LSU and USC. I have flipped the outcome from a few close games to see what happens. There are so many possibilities which will tend to even things out but I would not be surprised to see LSU pick up valuable sos points after this weeks games.

There is another point I'd like to make. At the end of the season my projected sos actually becomes more variable. With a lot of games left, the upsets balance themselves out. As you can see below, with few games remaining one opponent's victory can mean .2 BCS points which can be the difference.

USC LSU
Currently Projected SOS 1.44 (USC) 1.04 (LSU)

UF beats FSU 1.48 (USC) 0.84(LSU)

Zona beats ASU 1.48 (USC) 0.88(LSU)

UF and Zona win 1.52(USC) 0.76(LSU)

Haw beats Bama 1.32 (USC) 1.28(LSU)

Haw and Zona win 1.36 (USC) 1.12(LSU)

Rice beats LaTech 1.44 (USC) 1.24(LSU)

Tol beat B.Green 1.36 (USC) 1.04(LSU)

Okay, here's the TejasTiger InstantAnalysis on the above:

Fla-FSU: The Gators face an FSU team handicapped by the fact that (a) they are without their #1 WR (b) they have less incentive to play hard since they already have a BCS bowl bid locked up while FLA. is playing hard to get a shot at one and (c) the game IS being played in The Swamp in Gainsville.

Fla. has at least a 50% shot at the win here.

Zona-ASU--Two Pac-10 cellar dwellers here. One interesting note is that the new head coach will not be named by gametime Saturday and the current interim coach (who, I can only assume, is liked and respected by the team, else why name him interim coach earlier this year?) is still an active candidate. If the Wildcats see this as a way to give their interim coach a chance at the permanent gig with a win over their bitter rival, then who knows? Anyway, it's not like ASU is some juggernaut anyways.

UA, conservatively speaking, has a 35% shot at the win, reduced from 50% because they are on the road and possibly distracted by the ongoing coaching search.

Alabama-Hawaii: Our boys, Da Crimson Tide, can repay us for all those years we served as mere stepping stones on their way to there one billionth SEC title or 10th national title during The Bear's glory days by squeezing a win over those WAC-ky 7-4 Rainbow Warriors during their trip to Paradise this weekend.

Boy, would that help us or what?

'Bama's chances: at least 80%

Rice/La Tech: Ken Hatfield's Owls have a tendency to finish the season strong, but Jack Bicknell's Bulldogs have been competitive in most of their games this season. A real contrast in styles here: Rice is an option-heavy team, the Bulldogs toss it around the yard alot.

Sure, Rice has won two in a row, but those two wins are over UTEP and SMU teams with a combined total of 2 wins between them this season. The Techsters are coming off a bye-week, while this will be the Owls' seventh-consecutive game, and second on the road in the past three weeks (game is in Ruston).

La. Tech gets the 60% chance at the win by being better rested and at home (take out the understandable blowout at home to Miami and they've lost games to tough conference teams Boise St. and Hawaii by a combined total of 9 points).

Toledo/Bowling Green: BG quarterback Josh Harris is a stud, second to the Miami (Oh) guy whose name I'm too lazy to spell out. Toledo is no slouch in the MAC, sporting an 8-3 record, but BG is just the better team here.

Gotta give BG the 60% chance to win here since they are 9-0 at home this season.

Wow, most of these important games have the teams LSU needs to win playing at home, though the two of the three MOST important to us---Arizona and Alabama---do play on the road.

Now, back to Tellshow's update:

Nov 25: I have readjusted my projected computer rankings to having LSU #2 in 5 computers (KM, Sag, ST, Bill, Col). I had USC 2nd in Colley's Matrix but I am sure that LSU will be 2nd in Colley if they win out. By switching this computer poll, USC and LSU are projected to finish in dead tie. LSU also stands a good chance to pass USC in Wolfe and/or NYTimes. If Florida beat FSU, there is a small possibility that they could be ranked higher than Tennessee in the BCS. This would send UF to the SECCG and as long as UGA beats GT, then LSU would pick up 0.3 QW points from my projection.
This is from 2002 but I think it is still valid: "In the event of a tie for the second spot in the final standings, the tie would be broken by (in order) head-to-head results; a win against the highest ranked team in the final BCS top 25 standings or by using the strength of schedule component as contained in the BCS formula." So LSU would win the tie based on the victory over Georgia.
Click to expand...

islstl · Nov 25, 2003

Yeah I have been referencing the Rich Tellshow site for the past 3 weeks or so. In fact, I emailed him with a request to re-evaluate the Colley Matrix computer poll, in which Rich had LSU ending up 3rd behind USC. I had shown him proof with prior scoring history that LSU would vault into 2nd place after the SEC CG. He made the adjustment the next day and guess what, it's projected as a tie now!

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Does This Guy Rock or What: Must-See BCS Info (11/25 Updates by Rich Tellshow)

TejasTiger Founding Member

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