If Ohio State loses this weekend, I believe there is a GREAT chance that LSU can pass USC up in the BCS without USC losing. Looking at the current projected BCS SOS standings at: http://www.geocities.com/rtell/SOSP.html LSU can move up to 26th and USC will move down to 31st. That alone can help the Tigers a great deal. The more important thing to look at here is where LSU is in comparison to USC in the computer polls. LSU has already caught USC in one poll. Mark my words, as long as LSU wins out, no way does USC ever pass us up in any computer after we pass them. This leaves the other six. On Anderson & Hester, LSU went from .741 to .749 this week whereas USC went from .756 to .757. This means LSU sits just .008 behind them after making up .007 in this week alone. (About half the deficit) I like our chances to catch USC in that one. On the Richard Billingsley, LSU gained 3.8 points where as USC only gained 1.5. LSU sits 12 points behind the Trojans, but with the major difference in SOS from here on out, it's not out of reach for LSU to catch them. In Colley Matrix, LSU went from .06712 behind USC to .04161 behind after this week. (Little more than 1/3 the deficit) This is another one that's not out of the question for us to catch up in. On Peter Wolfe, LSU trails USC 6.955 to 6.820 (0.135 difference) They don't have previous week results posted, but for comparison sake, Ohio State has 7.529 and Texas has 7.005. BTW, Texas passed USC up this week in that poll despite the fact that it was Texas Tech that they played. So I love our chances to catch USC in that poll. This brings us to the crazy polls. In Jeff Sagarin, LSU trails USC 89.02 to 86.99. That is a lot of ground to make up, but USC's SOS in that poll is 22 and LSU's is 61. So we may be able to make up ground by SOS adjustment, I don't know. We'll have to see how this one plays out. Finally, the New York Times. I mean, what do you say about a poll that has Florida at 4th, USC at 5th and LSU at 11th. I have no idea how to make sense of this one. On the bright side, LSU trails USC 0.889 to 0.852 while USC trails OSU 0.947 to 0.889. Bottom line is, somethings could fall into place and LSU could get ahead of USC in all or at least most computers even without a USC loss. If we got close enough to having a full point lead in the computer average, this would cancel out the 1 point edge they have in the human polls. Add to that the small edge we have in SOS and maybe some QW points for Georgia, and I believe we overtake USC for 2nd. So in conclusion, GO WOLVERINES!!
You might be correct. So many factors to evaluate. If we win out convincingly, I wouldn't be suprised if the human polls (AP,Coaches) vault us to #2 also. If this happens, I believe LSU would be a lock for #2 BCS. Of course, it all depends on the game in the Big House this weekend.
A couple of things: Those BCS projections are a little on the simplistic side because they assume that the team with the better record wins in all remaining games. This, of course, will not happen (e.g., a 3-loss Florida team may, for example, defeat a 2-loss Fla. St team next week in Tallahassee. This projection assumes a Fla. St. win), though for the most part this should be accurate since, for the most part, teams with the better records tend to win this late in the season (e.g., an 8-2 team will likely beat a 2-8 team). Also, I think it's too much to wish for to have LSU slide past USC in both polls. Currently we're 78 behind in the ESPN poll, 85 in the AP. I'd think that, of the two, we have the best shot of passing them in the coach's poll, but who knows?
Well, the senerio I thought of can have USC stay put in both human polls and still have us catch them. I'm also aware that the projections are based on the higher record team winning each game, but even though that probably won't happen, maybe some of the ones that are lower records for us can win, such as Alabama over Auburn, South Carolina ove Clemson, and so forth. I think if lower ranked/record teams win, it will help us more than hurt us.
The Hornet & LSU99 are spot on. We need OSU to lose and LSU to win out and take #2 in majors. and LSU to get a total EIGHT BCS points or less. Final USC projection BCS projection (with OSU defeated & USC #3 in both major polls)=8.5 pts HOW THE HELL DO WE GET DOWN TO 8? THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY 2.0 = AP/ESPN (LSU must stomp Ole Miss, Arky & GA at home) 3.5 = LSU's projected Computer poll average, throw out NYT trash 1.0 = LSU's loss to Florida 6.5 = Subtotal, SOS & Quality win points to be added/averaged THIS is no picnic. LSU is projected in the 30's with a 1.5 SOS. That gives us 8 points with no Quality win point considerations. The Florida miracle doesn't look promising ... we get -.5 for GA. A split AP/ESPN poll will favor USC as the Computer polls give them the edge. It's gonna be close, and we are at the mercy of the AP/ESPN polls. We've got to BURY Ole Miss & Manning ... just like we did his PAW LSU 61, Mississippi 17
Out of curiousity, where can I find these Computer projections? I would like to take a look at how it's supposed to shake out.
http://cfrc.com www.andersonsports.com/football www.colleyrankings.com www.mratings.com/rate/cf-m.htm www.bol.ucla.edu/~prwolfe usatoday.com/sports/sagarin
ok, sorry, I already knew where the computers were. I thought you had some kind of projection of what they would be if USC and LSU win out.
Crazy thought here... could it possibly be better for LSU if TCU won out than if they lost?? Here's my thinking. Let's assume LSU passes up USC in all or most computers. LSU will also have a chance at passing TCU up as well. Now, If LSU was ahead of TCU, and TCU was ahead of USC, that would be a two spot lead instead of a one spot lead over USC in some polls. That extra buffer could be just what we need, much like what WE are currently doing to Ohio State with USC in the voting polls.
Way to go USM! After rechecking the polls, it wouldn't have helped LSU at all to have TCU win out because USC was already ahead of them in most polls, and there's no way TCU could have caught back up to them with their schedule. So GOOD JOB GOLDEN EAGLES!! And one more thing... GO WOLVERINES
