Colley Matrix out LSU stays 4th but closes gap.

Colley Matrix

2. USC - 0.8669
3. Ohio State - 0.86010
4. LSU - 0.65247

 

Those listings are from last week. Note that it still has LSU's record at 10-1, and the website says it was last updated on 11/23.

 

This weeks ratings

Through the 29th means games played through the 29th. The Colley Matrix does not include LSU's victory against Western Illinois. Look Florida State is at 10-2. The were 9-2 before the Florida game.

 

For LSU to pass USC in the Colley Matrix, Syracuse must beat Notre Dame. That is the key game.

 

If Hawaii and ND win next week (and, of course, LSU and USC win also) then the opponents win-loss for Colley will be tied at 69-73. (Colley ignores all games involving I-AA teams.) I suspect that will still be enough to put LSU over USC in his rankings (where the opponents rankings matter, not their win-loss directly).

 

I thought it would be better for LSU if Hawaii and ND got beat next week since they are both USC opponents.

 

Definitely. But even if they win it is possible that we overtake USC in Colley. Of course, if ND and Hawaii lose that would be really important from the BCS SOS perspective.

In fact those are the only games that matter (from LSU's point of view as far as BCS SOS goes). If Oklahoma loses, we are probably screwed (Voters would vote USC 1, OK 2, LSU 3, and we cannot beat OK's SOS and QW points.)

Army-Navy is a wash as far as SOS goes, since each has one opponent in common with USC (Hawaii and ND resply). So somebody should be able to compute the definitive word on BCS SOS given the 4 possible outcomes for the 2 games that matter: ND-Syracuse and Hawaii-Boise State.

 

ez271828, but could SC really pass Okla's SOS and QW? I can see where we don't have the SOS or QW's that Okla does, but I don't think SC has it either.

My point is that I don't think the voters would completely back SC if Okla lost. Three 1 loss teams would be a real mess to deal with for the BCS and voters, but I don't think they would see SC as the clear cut #1 of the three teams.

 

Point well taken; it will definitely be a mess. You are right also that USC may not be able to edge OK for #1 in BCS.

I just feel that some voters will be happy to put USC #1 over OK but I doubt many will put LSU over OK given current voting patterns. But if USC stays #2 in the human polls, then LSU could be in with a very real chance (but who knows what the computers will do in that case?)

 

Re: This weeks ratings

The top of the page says last updated 11/23.

Colley Ratings