China OK's force to stop Taiwan's independence

I think all three sides are posturing right now, but all are obviously gearing up for potential military action. The Taiwan Strait is one of the most dangerous military flashpoints in the world. Taiwan, the US and China all held military exercises in the area last summer. They result from the growing stand-off between Taiwan and China and and also competition between the US and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

In these exercises, China is clearly beginning to focus on air superiority. The recent exercise used every advanced weapon they own, including combat aircraft, naval forces, submarines and tactical ballistic missiles. China's former leader Jiang Zemin stated last year that China would launch a military attack on Taiwan within the next 20 years.

The US is no longer committed by treaty to defend Taiwan, but is clearly arming Taiwan and still conducts joint exercises. Taiwan is an important US ally in the Pacific. The US Seventh Fleet will surely intervene in a Chinese invasion attempt.

The US still sees China as the potential enemy in its military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region. During the Summer Pulse exercise, the US dispatched seven aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea and the West Pacific to form a blockade along China's coast. The intent to deter China is obvious.

The Bush Administration has been quite clear about its view of Taiwan's security. The Republican Party platform in Philadelphia in August 2000, stated:

"Our policy is based on the principle that there must be no use of force by China against Taiwan. We deny the right of Beijing to impose its rule on the free Taiwanese people. All issues regarding Taiwan's future must be resolved peacefully and must be agreeable to the people of Taiwan. If China violates these principles and attacks Taiwan, then the United States will respond appropriately in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act. America will help Taiwan defend itself."

China's leader says there will be an invasion of Taiwan in time. Americas leader says we will respond when they do. You can't get much clearer than that. On the other hand, it is in both China's and America's interests to let the staus quo remain, our economies are intertwined. We have both rattled sabres before. It is Taiwan that is rocking the boat with new independence talk. Bush doesn't need this crap right now and will likely be privately telling Taipei to STFU up about independence and just let things ride.

Still, there is another situation. We need China to stay out of it when we have to slap down North Korea. They need us to stay out of it when they reclaim Taiwan. Hmmmm . . .

 

China is becoming a Great Power but it is still a long way from a Superpower. Militarily, China has a huge army and air force, but a pitifully ineffective navy. Clearly the US is not going to try and fight a land war in Asia with China. What we are going to do is blockade them with our unmatched naval forces.

China's entire rise from Third World squalor to superpower aspirations is based on foriegn money resulting from overseas trade in the last 25 years. But, we can take away their income and they cannot retaliate in kind. A naval blockade would cripple China economically in under a year. Furthermore, if they could not get products out via rail through Russia, they would be economically devastated. This why it is vital for us to keep the Russians on our side. They will be tempted because they are poor and there could be big money made.

China has gone so far, so fast that they imagine themselves an economic superpower already. They are going to be very surprised in a war with the US. It took us three decades to beat the Soviet Union by bankrupting them. China won't take that long. If Wal-Mart alone stopped doing business with China, it would severly impact the Chinese economy.

The flip side of such a war is that the loss of China as a source of cheap goods will cause an economic crisis in the United States, as well. Things will get very expensive compared to what we have gotten used to, and inflation will go through the roof. Still, our more diversfied, free-market economy will survive the loss of Chinese goods out better than China will survive the loss of US dollars. In the long term we will find new Asian, African, and South American sources for cheap labor. China will find no substitute for the loss of the American market. Especially if we can prevent them from doing business with most of the rest of the world, too.

On a planet that is mostly ocean, the only real Superpower is the country that militarily dominates the seas. We also happen to dominate the bulk of the atmosphere and all of orbital space. It is never in our best interests to get involved in a land war in Asia. One-sided airpower and naval conflicts are the American way of war in the 21st century