A few good things that work in the favor of Bowling Green in this game: 1) Miami OH has already accepted a bid to the GMAC Bowl, so they already know they are going to a bowl 2) Bowling Green needs to win this game and therefore be guaranteed a bowl game (Motor City Bowl) 3) The home team has won the first 6 MAC Championship games. Bowling Green is playing this game at home. 4) Miami OH beat Bowling Green 33-10 at Miami OH earlier this year....payback is a mutha! Here are the stats: Offensively Miami OH..............42.0 ppg.....486.9 ypg Bowling Green.......34.6 ppg.....506.5 ypg Defensively Miami OH..............18.1 ppg.....323.5 ypg Bowling Green........19.2 ppg.....338.8 ypg Polls................Coaches...AP......BCS Miami OH...............15......14.......11 Bowling Green.........23......20.......18 Other facts 1) Miami OH has won the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams 2) Miami OH is a 7 point favorite 3) Miami OH QB Ben Roethlisberger is 8th in QB Efficiency with a rating of 159.0. Bowling Green QB John Harris is 20th with 146.2 4) Bowling Green is a much better rushing team, averaging 209.8 ypg (17th in the nation). Miami OH averages 157.3 (57th). 5) Miami OH has a much better rushing defense, averaging only 98.7 ypg (15th in the nation). Bowling Green averages 137.9 ypg (43). The key to the game will be whether Bowling Green can establish a rushing game against a good Miami OH rush defense. If they do and can control time of possession, look for Bowling Green to win this game. Also, as with all evenly matched teams, turnovers could be the difference. Prediction: Bowling Green 34, Miami OH 31
A few other notes on that first game, a big Miami (OH) victory: BG fumbled the ball FOUR (!) times in that one (Miami did a couple of time as well), once in Miami's red zone and THREE TIMES inside their own (BG) 30 yd line! What are the odds? Also, there is a 40% chance of sleet / snow up there this evening, and if you believe in the "shifty runners have an advantage in this weather because they know where they're going and the defense doesn't" theory (see Mike Vick v. Green Bay, 1st round of 2002 playoffs in Lambeau this past January), then the very athletic Josh Harris (over 600 yds rushing) may play a HUGE role in this one. Oh, good point on BG having incentive to play with some passion in this one, unlike that wussy, sack of sh** Alabama team last week!
Very interesting article on the game. If that field turns to slop, that reduces the importance of the passing game, and makes Harris more of a threat to take off and run (again, that "I know where I'm going and you don't" theory)---both Bowling Green strengths. http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2003/12/04/spt_miamifb04.html I can't believe I even give a damn about the MAC title game!
So, what's the final verdict ... DOES a BG OR MIA (OH) win help LSU more ... since the Mia (OH) scenario leaves only (1) #4 USC ... are we pulling for Bowling Green in the snow as a -7 Dog? Wazzzzzzzzzzzzup?
Another little tidbit: Bowling Green is coming off a division championship game against Toledo last week. That is why I'm picking Miami OH to win this game tonight. I think it will be too hard for Bowling Green to get up two weeks in a row.
That's correct. A Bowling Green win gives us a small hope that we can pass USC even without a Syracuse win.
