Boise State win may still be necessary....Please Read!!!!

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Dec 6, 2003.

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  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Ok, we have the Syracuse win now. Thank goodness somebody we were rooting for finally showed up to play.

    First, LSU is now guaranteed the Colley Matrix computer poll. No ifs, ands , or buts about it. It's in the LSU column. I also guarantee Billingsley. That gives LSU 5 polls. They now only need 1 of the other 2 computer polls.

    Hold on....we are not in the clear just yet.

    Richard Tellshow has "reprojected" his BCS standings for Georgia and Miami OH. He has Georgia in 10th spot with 24.09 and Miami OH with 24.56. This is with Miami OH only going up 1 spot in the human polls due to a projected Kansas State loss to OU. Basically if Miami OH goes up just 1 spot in either of the 2 human polls, that would lower their BCS score to 24.06. It is definitely too close for comfort.

    What does the Boise State win mean for LSU? A Boise State win gives LSU a .03 lead in the BCS standings. In this case, Georgia can fall to 54th in the BCS, and guess what.....we's gone to the Sugar Bowl!

    Looks like we still need to stay up til 2 in the morning to wait this one out. Sorry LSU fans. At least we finally get to root for a very good team, that is favored substantially (by 11 pts).
     
    islstl, Dec 6, 2003
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  2. ene0929

    ene0929 Founding Member

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    Go Boise State !!!
    Isn't the game on ESPN ???
     
    ene0929, Dec 6, 2003
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  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    10:30 PM....should be over at about 2 AM
     
    islstl, Dec 6, 2003
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  4. Tigers Paw

    Tigers Paw Founding Member

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    So what happens if Hawaii wins?
     
    Tigers Paw, Dec 6, 2003
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  5. ramah

    ramah Founding Member

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    We already knew this ... SYR & BS win ... with GA -.1 deduct for 10th place. Syracuse was the miracle win with a red hot Notre Dame
     
    ramah, Dec 6, 2003
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  6. Domanick

    Domanick Founding Member

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    Also, it's worth noting that if we win all 7 polls, we're set regardless. I didn't think of it as a high probability before today, but we have the Colley, and Wolfe looks like a lock also (he said LSU would "probably" win his poll with a win... it should be a near lock with Notre Dame losing also. If LSU could take the NYT poll (and I think there's at least a 60-40 shot), LSU is Sugar-bound regardless of Miami (OH) or Boise State.
     
    Domanick, Dec 6, 2003
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  7. ene0929

    ene0929 Founding Member

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    The NYT poll is so screwed up, there is no telling what will really happen in that poll....
     
    ene0929, Dec 6, 2003
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  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Yeah but I reiterate it here since now Miami OH is a DEFINITE threat for 10th in the BCS. Tellshow had originally projected about a 3.7 point advantage for Georgia over Miami OH. I thought that was way too much in the favor of GA, and I am not surprised he reworked the numbers to make it much closer than that.

    If Hawaii wins, we wait to see if Georgia can hold on for 10th in the BCS. Of course, then we also worry about how much LSU beat GA by. Best scenario is Boise State winning, and we can beat GA 63-0 and we would no longer care where GA ends up since we would no longer need their QW.
     
    islstl, Dec 6, 2003
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  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I did forget that if LSU wins all 7 computer polls, then the Boise State game does not matter as well. Bu then you are counting on the NYTimes poll, which I think a 60 percent chance for LSU is probably about right. So then we are counting on that to happen.

    So, here goes:

    1) Boise State wins and USC can suck it
    2) Boise State loses, then we wait to see if:
    .....a) Georgia finishes 10th in the BCS OR
    .....b) LSU wins all 7 computer polls OR
    .....c) LSU wins 6 polls and USC finishes 4th in 2 polls


    That's it in a nutshell.
     
    islstl, Dec 6, 2003
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  10. LSUfan

    LSUfan Founding Member

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    That is all true, but atleast now we can just enjoy the Georgia game and not have to look back on this ND/Syr in what if situations.

    In a very small way, we control our on fate. Win and wait.
     
    LSUfan, Dec 6, 2003
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