BCS Selection Process explained in detail

This is a mess. Have fun figuring it out.

BCS Selection Process for 2006-2007:
The order of selection is as follows:
1. The top 2 teams go to the national title game and conference champs of the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac-10, and SEC go to their games.
2. The bowls that lose their automatic qualifiers get to replace them first. (The bowl that would have the #1 team goes first.)
3. The remaining bowls pick automatic qualifiers and at-large teams in the reverse order when they will be played (so, this year, the order is Sugar, Orange, and then Fiesta).

What is an automatic qualifier? Well, here are the criteria (in order):
1. You finish in the top two of the standings.
2. You are the champion of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, or Southeastern Conference.
3. You are a the champion of C-USA, the MAC, the MWC, the Sun Belt, or the WAC and you:
....a) Are ranked in the top 12
....b) Or are in the top 16 and ranked above a team that qualifies under rule 2.
....(No more than one team meeting these provisions may get an auto-berth and the highest ranked team gets it).
4. Notre Dame will qualify if they are ranked 8th or higher.
5. If the 3rd ranked team has not earned an automatic berth by this point and there are less than 10 qualifiers, then that team gets it as long as no team in its conference is in the national title game.
6. If the 4th ranked team has not earned a berth by this point and there are less than 10 qualifiers, then that team gets it as long as no team in its conference is in the national title game.

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then any team in the top 14 with at least 9 wins can be picked as an at-large team.

 

Here is the official BCS eligibility process from their actual website:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

 

I think this is the rule that LSU would fall under should we win out and not make it to the SEC CG:

5. If the 3rd ranked team has not earned an automatic berth by this point and there are less than 10 qualifiers, then that team gets it as long as no team in its conference is in the national title game.

That seems like it would nearly impossible. First, if Florida runs the table, they stand a great chance at playing in the NC game. Secondly, it just appears the 10 qualifiers would already be chosen.

 

That is the actual rule, but there is no other independent worthy of mentioning anymore (all have left to go to conferences). Navy and Army don't really have football teams (they just masquerade as such).

 

Since examples always seem to make things clearer:

Here is an example of how it COULD pan out (I am making assumptions based on who I think will win games from here on out):

1- NC Game: Ohio State vs. Florida (top 2 in BCS Standings)
2- Rose Bowl selects Michigan (since Ohio State is #1 in BCS standings..they select first)
3- Sugar Bowl selects At-Large #1 - Arkansas/Auburn (since Florida is #2 in BCS standings..they select 2nd)
4- Sugar Bowl selects At-Large #2 - Notre Dame (order of choice is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Rose from here on out)
5- Orange Bowl selects ACC Champ - Georgia Tech/Wake Forest/Maryland/BC
6- Fiesta Bowl selects Big 12 Champ - Texas/Nebraska
7- Rose Bowl selects Pac 10 Champ - California
8- Orange Bowl selects Big East Champ - Rutgers/WVU winner (highest BCS ranking in 3 way tie in Big East I assume)
9 - Fiesta Bowl selects At-Large #3 - Boise State

So here's a recap:

NC - Ohio State vs. Florida
Rose - California vs. Michigan
Sugar - Auburn/Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers/W. Virginia
Fiesta - Texas vs. Boise State

Note: A 2-loss LSU, 2-loss Tennessee, and a 1 loss Wisconsin would be disqualified since the Big 10 and SEC Champs are in the NC game. The Sugar could end up with a 3 loss Arkansas potentially (lose to LSU and then the SEC CG).

Predictions:
Cal beats USC, Notre Dame beats USC

Like I said, examples tend to make things clear as mud.

 

I fixed it....

Also put Boise State in over Louisville since they should finish in the top 12 in the BCS (currently 14th) and win the WAC (that's a given). What isn't clear is what if Boise State ends up 13th in BCS (maybe Wisconsin jumps them and sneaks in at 12th). Then I assume they aren't an automatic qualifier and Louisville would be in play and I would assume chosen by the Fiesta, should they have a choice. It would take everything going wrong for an undefeated Boise State not to get into the top 12, however.

As you can see, USC controls so much of the fortunes of Cal, Notre Dame and themselves. If they win out, they stand a good chance at being in the NC game. Notre Dame losing to USC knocks them out of the automatic bid process as an at-large (not in top 8 in BCS). USC playing in NC game allows Rose Bowl to pick a 2 loss California in the Rose Bowl as an at-large.

Lots of fun scenarios.

Love it or hate it, the BCS process does get a lot more people interested in what happens the last few weeks of the college football season. It's akin to the wildcard in baseball. Personally, I wish we had a playoff system. But this is fun to follow while we wait for that to happen.