Re: BCS guru Brandon Edwards I wish I could count on the human pollsters to give LSU a fighting chance at overtaking Penn State, but that is one coat rack I can't hang my hat on. Harris screwed us this weekend, so there is definitely lots of wiggle room. LSU would pretty much have to be ahead of Penn State in every voter's rankings in order for us to overtake them. In Harris we are 60 points shy of having all third place votes, with 113 voters in that poll. Like I said, lots of wiggle room. The coachs' poll pretty much has it right already. We are 11 points shy of having all 3rd place votes out of 62 voters. The only way USC falls further than #2 spot in the human polls with a loss is for them to lose badly to UCLA....something like 45-28. Then they fall past UT, LSU and Penn State. In that case, the computers can still have them ranked #2 and it won't help. They would be out of BCS title contention. Then LSU and Penn State duke it out. If it's a close 38-35 game with UCLA winning in the last few seconds, then I think USC falls to #2 in the human polls and are strong enough in the computers (#2s and #3s probably) to hold back LSU and Penn State.
Re: BCS guru Brandon Edwards Let's assume UT loses to A&M this weekend. OK, here is what LSU's advantage would be if every voter had us 2nd in their poll and Penn State #3. ........Harris.....USA LSU... 2712.....1488 PSU... 2599.....1426 it's easy math as LSU would have a 24/25 percentage in both polls, which equates to .960.....Penn State would have a 23/25 percentage, or .920 That would give LSU a .08 advantage (.04 times two) in just looking at the human polls. That would in turn mean that LSU would have to be within 2 2/3 spots of PSU in the computer polls on average. Penn State would be guaranteed an average computer ranking of 24, as UT would fall past them in every poll. The problem at that point is LSU is not nearly as strong and UT would wedge themselves in many of the computer polls between PSU and LSU. Thus, the need for VTech to lose becomes even greater, as they already serve as a wedge at this point. So in other words, if PSU has an average computer ranking of 2, then LSU would be out if we had an average computer ranking of 5, would move past PSU if we had an average computer ranking of 4, and would be too close to call if we were somewhere in the middle. Of course in absolute terms, given the numbers I provided, we would need to be better than a 4 2/3 average computer ranking. Conclusion: LSU needs to get almost every 2nd place vote should UT lose, and LSU needs to finish within 2 spots of PSU in the computer polls in order to overtake them. Vtech has to lose in order for that to happen. No doubt about it.
I thought it was the other way around.....if USC loses they are definitely out and if Texas should lose they could still be in because they are so strong in the computers. This is the essence of what I thought I read that Brad Edwards said.
no, definitely the other way around UT and USC are basically in a dead heat in the computer polls, altho UT holds slight advantages in most of them....but they are both way ahead of Penn State , who is currently 3rd The difference is voters will drop UT like a hot potato should they lose to a pretty bad A&M or even mediocre Colorado team.....USC loses to what is deemed a "very good" UCLA team and loses close, then they may not drop enough to knock them out of BCS contention.
