BCS Championship title maybe getting a bit clearer

I think the likeliest of scenarios is as follows:

1) Ohio State/Michigan winner vs. Texas
2) Ohio State/Michigan winner vs. WVU/Louisville winner
3) Ohio State/Michigan winner vs. SEC CG winner (Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU)
4) Ohio State vs. Michigan
5) Ohio State/Michigan winner vs. Rutgers
6) Ohio State/Michigan winner vs. Notre Dame/USC/California

I put Texas in the driver's seat because I think whoever wins out of WVU and Louisville this coming Thursday stands a decent chance of losing to Rutgers. If they don't and they run the table, then I would expect them to finish 2nd in the BCS. Otherwise, it opens the door for Texas, who should be able to run the table, as their toughest opponent, A&M, is a home game.

It is possible that if a team such as Florida or Auburn can run the table and win the SEC CG, they would then finish ahead of Texas. But again, I don't see that happening. Unfortunately for SEC fans, I think we will just beat each other senseless, giving no team a chance at the title. Its the nature of the beast, known as the SEC.

The 4th option I posted in an previous thread and is definitely possible. If no SEC team can run the table and no team in the Big East goes undefeated, and if Michigan and Ohio State play one of those classic games down to the wire, then they may very well still be sitting at the first 2 spots in the BCS. I don't think Michigan has the offense to compete with Ohio State. The OSU defense will dominate and produce a fairly easy win. The other reason why this probably won't happen is that the game is played November 18th. There are still 2 more weeks where teams trying to get to #2 would still be playing against formidable opponents and therefore pass up the loser of this game, should they still be #2 in the BCS at this point. I think ultimately Michigan would have to barely beat OSU in order for this scenario to stand the best chance.

Option 5 is the most interesting. Should Rutgers upset both Louisville AND WVU (not sure its that's much of an upset, this team is damn good), then you have an undefeated team with a couple of big wins to their credit. I think WVU would have to beat Louisville and then Rutgers beat a #2 or #3 ranked WVU team in the season finale in order for them to have a shot. I just think the "bigger" win has to come last. And it's on the road at WVU, that adds to the perceived value of the victory as well.

USC/California and USC/Notre Dame obviously knock the loser out. So USC could very well lose to Cal and then beat ND, knocking out all both USC and ND. These teams have the toughest road to hoe. Cal and ND stand a better chance than USC would, since both only have USC standing in their way of running the table. Now should USC run the table, they are right back in contention for #2 in the BCS (likely finish there). They are just not nearly good enough to do that, however.

And yes LSU is in the mix, although everything has to go just right. First and foremost, win out. Then get to the SEC CG, which has been outlined in previous threads how exactly that will happen, and win. Then you take your chances. A loss by Texas to A&M, a blowout win by OSU over Michigan, USC all with 1 more loss, and no undefeated Big East teams would be required to finish #2 in the BCS, however. This is same scenario for Arkansas as well. Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee stand better chances than that.

My final prediction: Ohio State vs. Texas in a rematch.

The gap between OSU and the rest of the field is widening every single week that passes by. The fight for #2 is simply that....deciding who will lose to OSU in the title game.

PS - I think I should have titled the thread "....maybe getting a bit muddier"....lol

 

Taking a closer look at LSU's chances:

1) Tennessee needs to win out (except against LSU obviously). We need Tennessee to finish in the top 10.
2) Florida needs to win out and make it to the SEC CG. We need Florida to finish in the top 10.
3) Arkansas must lose to either (but not both) SC or Tennessee. Preferably Tennessee. We need Arkansas to finish in the top 25.
4) Auburn wins every game except Alabama. We need Auburn to finish as high as possible without making it to the SEC CG.
5) LSU beats Arkansas and gets a shot at Florida in the SEC CG
6) LSU beats Florida in the SEC CG
7) Texas loses to A&M in the season finale (Texas Tech not beating Texas really hurt tonite)
8) Ohio State destroys Michigan
9) USC loses one more game (Cal, more than likely). Preferably USC loses to Oregon but beats both Cal and ND. That is the best scenario. Then all 3 of those teams are done.
10) USC beats Notre Dame (not convinced this MUST happen, however)
11) There is no undefeated Big East team out of WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers (e.g., WVU beats Louisville, Rutgers loses to Louisville, and WVU loses to Rutgers).
12) LSU may need "style" points in its wins over Tennesee, Arkansas and Florida (every vote counts, in other words)

Its just that easy.

Remember in 2003, after the first week of play in November, LSU was around #8 in the BCS standings, which is about where they will be if we beat Tennessee next weekend. Then everything just clicked from that point on.