BCS Analysis from a Site That Shall Remain Nameless

This is 100% legit info, but since this info is paraphrased (not directly quoted) from a subscription-only service, I'd rather be safe and not name the site.

Those who regularly read my posts know my stuff is usually well-reasoned, so I have no motive to try and deceive you guys regarding BCS-related stuff.

(PS--I placed a number of my own comments in the listing below, usually preceded by the word NOTE.)

Here it is, as of Monday, November 24:

 

This week it's:
USC 2 (AP) + 2.5 (Comp. Av) + 1 (loss), -.1 (QW) = 5.4 points
LSU 3 (AP) + 3.17(Comp.Av) + 1 (loss) = -.5 (QW) = 6.27 points

This assumes a #5 ranking in the Wolfe for LSU.

So, LSU =.87 points behind USC with SOS yet to be determined
and issued with the new BCS poll tonite.

LSU was 1.44 points behind USC at 2.88 last week for SOS.

And SOS points should decrease from 2.88 for LSU, but how far?

 

A quick note regarding opponent's opponent SoS, a minor one (but, from the looks of things, even minor wins might loom large):

Because strength of schedule projections assume the higher-rated team winning in each of the remaining games, Houston is projected to defeat UAB (UH is 6-5, UAB is 5-6, and one rating service has UH 5 spots ahead of UAB).

UAB is an opponent of Georgia, our likely SEC CG foe and previous opponent. Therefore, a likely UH loss (believe me, living here in Houston, they are terrible right now) helps a little bit more.

(PS-Accoring to this site's BCS-based rankings, LSU has played/will play 5--and, if Tenn gets to Atlanta, 6--teams ranked in the Top 40 and is 3-1 in games played, whereas USC has played 2 and is 2-0 in those games.)

 

(groan) digging a little deeper here, folks; kinda feel like an archaeologist on a dig or something, for I keep finding little nuggets o' hope for us to consider.

First off, we all know by now that a Florida win and a Pitt win this weekend will, at least, make it close for Florida passing Tennessee in next week's BCS.

While we all would LOVE to see that happen, Florida and Pitt wins still help us even if Fla. stays behind Tenn. in next Monday's rankings.

Why? Consider the fact that a 3-loss UGA team (with the 3rd loss coming to LSU in Atlanta) is projected to finish 10th in the December 8 BCS ratings by a comfortable margin, meaning that worst-case we still should get at least a .1 Quality Win bonus.

Lookee who's projected ahead of a 3-loss Georgia, though: Miami and Florida State. Should both lose---and, at the moment, they are not projected to do so---one can only assume that a 3-loss Georgia with a loss to #3 BCS LSU on Dec. 6 finishes ahead of a 3-loss Fla. St. with a loss to a lower-ranked BCS Florida and a 3-loss Miami with a loss to a lower-ranked BCS Pitt.

In sum, Georgia should finish either #10 or #8 in the Dec. 8 BCS, with that extra .2 bump looming large...or at least being an important part of the mix nonetheless.

 

Important (opponents' games)

USC needs:
Hawaii over Alabama
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Hawaii over Boise State

LSU needs:
Alabama over Hawaii
Arizona over Arizona State
Georgia over Georgia Tech
Florida over Florida State
Louisiana Tech over Rice


Less important (opponents' opponents' games)

USC needs:
Pittsburgh over Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech over Georgia
Syracuse over Rutgers
Stanford over Notre Dame
Boise State over Nevada
Florida State over Florida
UNLV over Wyoming
Tennessee over Kentucky

LSU needs:
Miami (FL) over Pittsburgh
Texas over Texas A&M
Virginia over Virginia Tech
Ole Miss over Mississippi St.
SMU over TCU
UAB over Houston
Oklahoma over Kansas St.

 

(dig, dig, dig) Rick Tellshow has just released his projected BCS for the week:

Team W L Ave Coach AP Ave QW SOS BCS
1 Oklahoma 12 0 1.00 1 1 1.00 0.5 0.40 1.90
2 Southern Cal 10 1 2.33 2 2 2.00 0 1.56 6.89
3 LSU 10 1 3.33 3 3 3.00 0.4 2.44 9.37
4 Michigan 10 2 4.17 4 4 4.00 0.6 0.52 10.09
5 Ohio St 10 2 4.67 7 8 7.50 0 0.24 14.41
6 Texas 9 2 6.50 6 6 6.00 0 0.48 14.98
7 Georgia 9 2 7.08 5 5 5.00 0.3 1.28 15.06
8 Tennessee 9 2 7.25 8 7 7.50 0.1 1.32 17.97
9 Florida St 9 2 10.00 9 9 9.00 0 0.76 21.76
10 Miami FL 9 2 9.83 10 10 10.00 0.2 0.56 22.19
11 Florida 8 3 10.67 11 11 11.00 1.2 0.36 23.83
12 Iowa 9 3 13.50 12 13 12.50 0.7 0.60 28.90

Let's look at Florida State. There is a chance that a close Fla. St loss to Florida, coupled with a Miami loss to Pitt may only drop Fla. St one spot to 10 in next week's BCS, since Iowa is done for the year, as is the entire Big Ten (read: odds of Iowa's SoS improving are slim and none, plus Fla. St would have to fall, like, 7 or more spots in the AP and ESPN polls, unlikely in the event of a decent loss to Florida at Florida, plus most teams right behind them are idle this week).

This assumes a Fla. St loss to a higher-rated BCS team in Florida keeps them ahead of a Miami that loses to a lower-rated (in relation to Florida) BCS team in Pitt.

This, to be honest, would be outstanding and give Florida an amazing THREE wins over teams in the BCS top 10: LSU, Fla. St and Georgia, whereas Tennessee would lose their only QW because Miami would fall out of the BCS top 10.

Since Ga. and Texas are close, it's not too much of a stretch to assume (if both win this week, as they both should) an LSU win, a Florida win, a Tennessee win and an Arkansas loss might allow Ga. to pass Texas in next week's BCS. Georgia plays 6-5 Ga. Tech (current approx. nat'l ranking=54), while UT faces Tex A&M (4-7, current approx. nat'l ranking=66), so Ga.'s SoS improves slightly in comparison to UT's. (NOTE: A Ga. win over Ga. Tech slightly hurts USC, too, since Ga. Tech is an opponent's opponent ---BYU, in this case---for USC, plus conference versus non-conf. W-L totals are part of the Anderson computer poll calculations, so Ga. and Florida win help the SEC and all of our teams in that particular poll).

If this happens, Florida could get .5 QW points for Georgia, .8 QW points for LSU and .1 QW point for Fla. St for a grand total of 1.4 QW points in next week's BCS rankings. At a minimum, just counting QW points, gives Florida a 1.5 point gain on Tennessee (out of a current spread of 5.69).

Florida easily gets to #9 in both polls with Fla. St. and Miami losses, shaving another 2 pts off right there, whereas Tennessee gains no ground in both (make that a 3.5 point gain out of a current spread of 5.69).

Can an idle Ohio State pass Tennessee in the AP? If it happens, knock yet another .5 from the difference between Tenn and Fla. If the Vols win a close one against the Cats (current spread is Tennessee by 10 points), and both Miami and Fla. St lose...a pipe dream, but keep in mind an idle Fla. St. picked up nearly 150 AP votes last week when teams ranked near them in the poll (Wash. St and TCU) lost, so what happens if two teams near Ohio State lose this weekend? Where do those votes go?

Florida's SoS jumps, too, if only because of a win over Fla. St and LSU and Ga. victories (a Miami loss does hurt, but since it would be to a good Pitt team, it shouldn't hurt that much).

The more I look at it, the closer and closer Fla and Tenn appear to be next week in the BCS should both Fla.St. and Miami lose this weekend...no guarantees, though, just should be interesting if all of this happens this weekend.

If it DOES, ladies and gents, and we retain that Georgia QW bonus of .4 or .5 (assume an Oklahoma win in the Big XII title game might slide UT back in from of Ga., since they should be very close to one another), well...things look pretty good for a 12-1 LSU team, I think.

Pretty Sugary, in fact.

 

Add North Texas to the list of teams to root for this weekend.

They face Oregon State opponent New Mexico State this weekend. A win over NMS negates a likely win by another Oregon State opponent--Fresno State---over inept UTEP this weekend.

Additionally, North Texas has also faced both Arkansas and La-Monroe, thus boosting ever so slightly our opponent's opponents strength ratings.

Hey, every little bit counts.

 

Last update for the day: Tellshow replied to my email regarding the Tennessee-Florida scenario outlined above.

"I think it is still possible for UF to overtake UT but
it will be more difficult. Had OSU stayed above UT in
the AP the Gators would ahve a really good chance. I
don't know if they can make up that extra 0.5. I
think FSU would fall farther than that although I have
looked that closely (at a possible FSU fall in the AP and ESPN polls)".

Well, at least he didn't discount this scenario...lol.

 

TejasTiger, would you mind compiling a single list of teams that we LSU fans need to pull for? Something along the lines of:

Alabama over Hawaii
North Texas over New Mexico State
etc.

 

The list posted by JoeReckless above looks pretty good, though I'd take issue with the Miami over Pitt listing since a Pitt win can play a big part in Florida possibly catching Tennessee.

I can't say for sure which games are more important than others, but as far as LSU and USC directly are concerned, Alabama and Hawaii is pretty darn big.