Baseball America LSU v. Miami Rundown

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by BB, Jun 16, 2004.

  1. BB

    BB Founding Member

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    Not sure if this entire thing was posted or not. Either way:

    Louisiana State Tigers 46-17

    Coach: Smoke Laval (third season at Louisiana State; two trips to Omaha).

    How LSU Got Here: Swept through the Baton Rouge, La., regional, beating College of Charleston in the final; defeated Texas A&M at Alex Box Stadium in one slugfest and one pitchers' duel to win the super-regional.

    CWS History: Laval's second consecutive trip raises LSU's tally to 13 in 19 seasons, a time span in which the Tigers have captured five crowns (1991, '93, '96, '97 and 2000) to tie for second on the all-time list.

    Players To Watch: Jr. OF J.C. Holt (.390-6-51 with 20 steals and 18 doubles); Jr. OF Jon Zeringue (.387-12-55 with 19 doubles); Jr. OF Ryan Patterson (.340-14-64 with 22 doubles); Jr. LHP Lane Mestepey (7-3, 3.43 with 41 strikeouts and 26 walks in 94 innings); Sr. RHP Nate Bumstead (10-3, 3.59 with 52 strikeouts and 19 walks in 90 innings); Jr. SS Blake Gill (.344-5-41).

    Lowdown on the Tigers:

    "Their defense is good, not great. Compared to last year with Aaron Hill and even Ryan Theriot before him, the shortstop isn't as good, but there's going to be more pressure on (the opposing) shortstop than LSU's because of they way they hit. Next to South Carolina, LSU has the deepest lineup in the SEC and puts constant pressure on you.

    "One through nine, everybody can beat you, but I just don't think they're as scary as LSU of the mid-90s. They are definitely not as powerful as those teams. They have some guys with 13, 14 homers, but should have more in that park. They are very aggressive swingers, especially early. If you mix it up early, you can get ahead. I think you can jam a lot of their guys, and they'll chase breaking balls in the dirt and changeups away if you get ahead of them. You can get in on Zeringue, he's got some holes in his swing. Good lefties can get Holt, too.

    "LSU's pitching staff is real average. Bumstead is just away, away, away--all sliders and changeups. Get on top of the plate and take the outer half away from him and you've got a chance. (Lefthander Lane) Mestepey, he just competes. He's so emotional on the mound, and when he doesn't pitch he's always the first one running out of the dugout. If he pitches and wins the first night, they've got a great chance. They're real reluctant to go to the bullpen. Basically, there are one or two guys they're comfortable with. If you can get to their starters early, you'll be in business. But you're going to have to hit because they will score their runs."

    Omaha Outlook: The fans in Baton Rouge feel Omaha is an entitlement, and openly questioned Laval's coaching abilities as the team lost seven SEC series openers. LSU rallied to win six of those series before sweeping through the first two rounds of the tournament to put that talk to rest. Back in Omaha, the Tigers resemble most of their recent CWS teams with a deep, powerful lineup. However, the other three teams on LSU's side of the bracket have the ability to score just as frequently, so an inconsistent pitching staff must deliver a strong performance. Mestepey, who struggled to regain his 2001-02 form after missing 2003 with shoulder surgery, has done so in allowing four earned runs in 24 1/3 postseason innings, including a complete-game shutout against Texas A&M. The Tigers will need at least two more starters to follow that lead if they are to advance out of their bracket.


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    Miami Hurricanes 49-11

    Coach: Jim Morris (11th season at Miami; nine trips to Omaha; two CWS titles).

    How Miami Got Here: Swept through the Coral Gables, Fla., regional in three games, beating Florida Atlantic in the final; topped Florida in two home games to win the super-regional.

    CWS History: Miami ties Southern California for second all time with its 21st CWS appearance, nine of which have come in the last 11 years under Morris. The Hurricanes won titles in 1982, '85, '99 and 2001.

    Players To Watch: Sr. 1B Jim Burt (.373-14-72 with 25 doubles); So. SS/DH Ryan Braun (.347-9-43 with 20 steals); So. RHP Cesar Carrillo (11-0, 2.73 with 85 strikeouts and 39 walks in 106 innings); Sr. LHP J.D. Cockroft (9-4, 3.41 with 63 strikeouts and 36 walks in 100 innings); Jr. OF Brian Barton (.365-6-45 with 16 steals); Fr. OF Jon Jay (.364-5-49 with 19 steals).

    Lowdown on the Hurricanes: "They crushed Long Beach, roughed up (Jered) Weaver. They're seeing the ball well and busting good pitches for extra bases. They hit everything we threw. Burt right now is just a great hitter. He was hitting balls down and away, everywhere. We couldn't get him out. With Braun, pitch him up; he's a low-ball hitter. Down and away, he crushes that, so you've got to try to tie him up and stay up in the zone. (Third baseman Gaby) Sanchez has kind of a long swing, so tie him up inside, too. These are all great hitters in hitters' counts.

    "They play really good defense. Jim Burt looks like he might not be that great at first, but he's pretty good. Sanchez is the weak link in the infield. He tends to play real deep and you can attack with the bunt.

    "Carrillo is their best guy in his first year on that staff (he sat out his freshman year as a partial qualifier). He's the only one with great stuff. He gave up four in the first against N.C. State (in the regional), but they got it back and he settled down and hasn't given up anything since then. That's a positive for them. Cockroft is Cockroft. If you start a bunch of lefthanders against him, he will struggle. He has no pitch for them. He just throws that 58 mile an hour changeup that gets sucked into the dirt. He has a good move to first but you can run on his leg kick--just go before he gets it all the way up. The problem is that (catcher Erick) San Pedro is good enough behind the plate to make up for that a little bit. The bullpen has some younger guys like (freshman righthander Danny) Gil, but he's been good lately and all those guys have the confidence to close out games.

    "They have great confidence playing at home. You know how Yankee Stadium is in October? That's Mark Light during regionals and super-regionals. They play so many games there during the regular season (45) and win, so they just kind of expect it and are confident in the tournament. It's a different team in Omaha."

    Omaha Outlook: Health issues have hampered Miami all year, but the Hurricanes have continued to win nonetheless. Miami lost just one weekend series and enters the CWS with the nation's longest winning streak at 12 games. Still the team doesn’t have the star quality of a typical Miami team, which suits Morris just fine. The offense is packed with slashers who stole 137 bases and can manufacture runs, while the bullpen offers plenty of matchup options after three workhorse starters. Burt is a working man's player who has transformed himself into a difficult out and the team leader over four seasons. His offense helped fill the void created by the rib injury that stole 18 games from Braun and has forced him to DH-only duties. If you must name a star, it's Carrillo. The Hurricanes are 18-0 in games he pitches. After him, there's plenty of depth, but not the same power stuff that helps navigate power-packed postseason lineups.
     
  2. Jwho77

    Jwho77 Founding Member

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    Our genius commentator's lowdown misses alot on LSU as a pitching staff. He obviously coached against Miami and not LSU, because he knows the Canes well, but lacks total insight on us.

    We have a bullpen that Smoke and the fans are very confident in. Determan is a proven reliever, Smith is a good lefty setup man, and Faircloth has become a solid closer. I think the Tigers have a versatile and deep (by college standards) bullpen. And, if Meier pitches like he has so far in the postseason, we have 3 capable starters (which explains how we won so many sEC series after opening night losses).

    Finally, he says our line up is good "compared to South carolina" when we have the best overall lineup at the plate in the SEC. The writer focuses entirely on our weaknesses as a lineup because he lacks real up-close insight. But, he is right on one thing: I think we need Mestepay to get us the win Saturday night if we want to go to the title series. I think guys like Determan and Dirks can step up to get us through the losers' bracket, but our chances would be greatly improved with a win in game one.
     
  3. tirk

    tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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    Very good post but we have more than 3 starters....determan can start as can nate/lane/dirks/meier. we have 5. determan can close. smith is nasty when on. 90+ fastball, approaches 95. Faircloth is nasty to righties but a launching pad for lefties. please do not let him pitch to a stud righty as the submarine style will kill him. yes this lineup hitting wise is awesome. beware foes for you do not know how good it is. nor do we, yet, as fans.
     
  4. Jwho77

    Jwho77 Founding Member

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    I said we have 3 capable starters as of right now. Yes, I feel Determan can be one, too, but he seems to thrive in long relief, so I'd hate to see him taken away from that important role. As for Dirks, I don't have th confidence in him since he has not pitched as well in the last thrid of the season and has yet to see postseason action. I love Clay's long term potential, but it is anyone's guess whether he can help us in Omaha.
     

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