Games against I-AA teams simply "do not exist" as far as Colley is concerned. So we would have to win the SECCG just to have the same number of games/wins (and hence winning percentage) as USC and OSU. The formula is essentially ranking = (winning %) + (sum of opponents rankings) (The actual formula weights things appropriately) Question is: Would playing a good team in the SECCG make up for the bad records of so many of the other teams we've faced? Possibly. Excluding the SECCG only 5 of the 11 1-A teams LSU plays have winning records: GA, UF, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas. USC played 5 teams with a winning record as well: Auburn, Hawaii, Cal, Wazzu, Oregon State But they also played two teams that ended up 6-6: Washington, UCLA (Notre Dame could also wind up 6-6) I suspect that will be enough to keep USC above LSU in the Colley standings.
Colley Matrix has an add/remove games at will option. Seems to indicate that we will pass USC to be number 2 if we win the SECC game.