So, The chances that Florida goes to Orange with a loss depends on if Rose passes on LSU and picks ND. Lsu's chances are still very high for going to Orange being ranked higher than FLA. So FLA is almost garenteed Cap 1 with a loss.
Well we're hearing rumblings that LSU may be in trouble if Florida loses close to Arkansas and we duke it out with Florida for the Orange (Florida viewed more favorably by Orange, allegedly). I can say with utmost confidence that should Florida lose big, then LSU has nothing to worry about.
I really don't see how LSU will get picked for the Rose Bowl if Florida loses. Arkansas will go to the Sugar and Florida will go to the Orange/Rose. Florida is a flashy program with national appeal because of that a$$ Steve Spurrier(for some ungodly reason because their fans are rude and arrogant). Florida also beat us in a head to head match up. I am definately not trying to rain on the parade, I am just trying to be realistic. I don't want everyone to get their hopes up and then no one show up for the Cap One. That scenario playing out will hurt LSU's chances of BCS bids in the future.
I certainly have my heart set on the Rose bowl but the ND factor is scary. So unpredictable. It is hard to believe that the Rose wants a rematch of the blowout between Mich-ND, but listening to the talking(pus)heads, my faith begins to waiver. If Ark only eeks by Florida, I think we can bank on the Orange taking the Gators, unless Rose picks us first, then they would get bumped as the Rose picks ahead of the Orange. I know best case is that Fla wins, but what if Ark manhandles Fla?? Would Fla drop in the BCS AND look bad enough to keep the Orange from picking them?? Let's hope Fla's defense is up to the task, and the Rose picks us for the more interesting match-up. Do you guys remember stressing like this while teams kept falling, LSU kept rising, and we found out at the very end that we would play in the NCG in 2003?? Like deja vu for me...
Being an integral part of the BCS goings on back in 2003 on this board, it definitely was really stressful in many respects. We had to rely on so many things going our way in the weeks leading up to that final week (teams ahead of us kept falling by the way side). Then we still needed 2 more games going our way that final Saturday as well as having to beat an excellent Georgia team in the SEC CG. So we still had our work cut out for us. This is different in the fact that we just sit and wait and have no game to influence the voters any further. West Virginia losing was a big boost, and very unexpected. Still there's work to do. But going to the Rose in 2006 is essentially nearly as big in scope as that BCS title berth back in 2003, amazing as that sounds. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity, and against a tradition rich team (be it Michigan or USC). The Tigers could very well end up with 2 very special seasons within 4 years of each other.
I think that Florida falls completely out of the BCS with a loss to Arkansas (which I view as very likely--unless Nutt decides to hinge the game on his team's passing abilities again). Still, I think Florida will fall far enough to not even be a consideration with a loss the last week of the season (even though we lost to them, it was all the way back in the beginning of October--far out of the minds of most people). For what it's worth, I'd rather go to the Cap One Bowl against Wisconsin than the Orange Bowl against the ACC. That's just not exciting at all. Both of those match-ups, of course, absolutely PALE in comparison to either of the possible match-ups in the Granddaddy of 'em all.
Another game that LSU fans should watch is the ACC championship game (Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech). If Wake wins that game it makes Florida that much more attractive to the Orange. Wake Forest only has an enrollment of around 5K and is located in backwater North Carolina. The Orange is not going to be confident that Wake fans will travel well and sellout the game. If GT wins the Orange may be willing to take a higer rated LSU over Florida since GT is a slightly larger school and is located in Atlanta. In the eyes of the Orange GT gives them a large TV market and a better chance at selling more tickets.
If UF loses to Arky, isn't it feasible that Arky would be voted ahead of us? I don't care where we go as long as it's a BCS game and we play Michigan. However, I have feeling that in a big heavily towted game that JR would be flat and sink us, therefore giving the SEC a bad name when facing a Big 10 team. I don't think Arky beats UF. I think UF is good enough on defense to hold #5, plus you know what they are going to do and are comepletely a 1-dimensional team. I was shocked that they moved the ball on LSU as well as they did.
If Arky wins, they are SEC Champs and go to Sugar automatically. They will be unlikely to be ranked above us, however.
