I had LSU 7th in the Sagarin....so I am not far off at all......a score of 19 = 7th place. The only way I am wrong about LSU being ahead of Penn State is if the human polls screw us. I could still be off by 2 spots (on the high side) on every computer poll and LSU would still be ahead of Penn State in the BCS, if my human polls are right. Sagarin was the same poll I couldn't decide if Vtech would be ahead of Miami, it was a flip of the coin. I still went with Miami to stay ahead. I'll be damned if VTech didn't pass up Miami without even playing and Miami winning their game. So if you need proof that SOS matters, that was it. The 4-6 record of Wake Forest is going to actually hurt Miami's computer rankings slightly this week. I had also predicted USC would take over the top spot in that poll, I don't understand why that didn't happen. Texas Tech lost, which meant that UT lost one of their top 10 wins, and now UT only has 1 top 10 win vs USC with 2. And USC's SOS is now stronger than UT's.
I agree with Sabertooth in saying that I think you are being a little too generous in the computers. Adding Alabama to our SOS will help, but scores from around the country have hurt. North Texas lost AGAIN, this time to a 2 win team, Arizona State dropped another, Florida lost to South Carolina, and Vanderbilt lost to Kentucky. This just does not seem to be our year in SOS. On the flip side, it looks like Penn State made a deal with the scheduling gods. Their normally bad opponents have been respectable, and the teams they missed in the Big Ten were Indiana and Iowa. Iowa helped us a little yesterday by knocking off Wisconsin, but Iowa easily has been a disappointment this year. I look for LSU to be 5th in the BCS this week, passing both Alabama and Virginia Tech. I expect us to close the gap on Penn State a little this week, but not pass them. Next week Penn State will increase their lead a little if they beat Michigan State, but I think as we add more games, including the SEC Championship game, we will close the gap in the computers enough to let the human polls decide it. Of course we will be looking at having to have 2 out of 3 lose out of Miami, Texas, and USC somewhere along the line.
:crystal: i agree islstl. LSU will be at best 4th. I also predict that it will take a Miami and UT loss for LSU to jump to number 2. USC will not drop lower than 2nd. I think UT can lose to Colorado and Miami could lose to either GT or UVA. I hope it pans out like two years ago, cause if not we are looking at a crappy opponent in the Sugar Bowl. Probably West Virginia. Anyone else agrees that the Big East should be dropped from the BCS and make it three at-large bids. I would personally like to play VT in the Sugar. A little redemption from three years ago.
So far with two components in, it looks like it's going to end up pretty close between LSU and Penn State for #4 in the BCS this week. Sagarin is probably going to be one of the worst LSU computer scores. I've put in the Coaches and Jeff Sagarin polls, and here's the results so far: Code: Coaches Human JS Computer Total 1 USC 1543 0.995 24 0.960 0.9837 2 Texas 1495 0.965 25 1.000 0.9763 3 Miami 1421 0.917 21 0.840 0.8912 4 Penn State 1251 0.807 23 0.920 0.8447 5 LSU 1363 0.879 18 0.720 0.8262 6 Virginia Tech 1168 0.754 22 0.880 0.7957 One note about these so far, I've doubled the Coaches polls, so basically the Coaches poll counts for itself and the Harris poll. This is so that the 2/3 human, 1/3 computers amount is honored. The Sagarin is probably going to be one of our lowest rankings, so this should give us a good feel of where we would be in the official BCS Standings tomorrow. You can see the full rankings so far at: Unofficial BCS Standings Week 12
Unless USC or Texas lose, the bcs rankings don't mean a thing to LSU... and with UT being crap, florida losing yet again, georgia losing, UNT being crap this year... our SOS will never get us high enough...
In the coaches poll, Penn State got a boost of 1 and 3/4 spots on average without even playing a game...that's bullsh!t. Notre Dame, who had an impressive win yesterday, didn't even get a whole 1 spot boost......which should have been minimal with Alabama losing. So basically coaches decided this week that Penn State was actually better than they surmised last week.....and boosted them ahead of Notre Dame and/or Virginia Tech in many of their rankings. That's ridiculous. Oh well, if Harris pulls some similiar bullcrap stunt, then LSU will be 5th in the BCS behind Penn State....I still say my computer rankings are going to be fairly accurate.
If my computer polls are correct, then here is the BCS ranking for LSU and Penn State (this includes the revised numbers, as bogus as they are, from the Harris and Coaches polls that are now out): LSU.............. = .8525 Penn State.... = .8520 Basically, its gonna be real close. Penn State will overtake us next week due to SOS gain, but an LSU win over Georgia in the SEC CG ultimately puts LSU back ahead of Penn State, leaving only 3 teams ahead of us. This eerily (in a good way) reminds me of 2003, as LSU just steadily climbed up the BCS rankings, with one team after the other falling by the wayside....In 2003, it was Ohio State losing late in the year that allowed LSU to vault to #3 in the BCS....then we all know what happened that last magical weekend of the 2003 season (SEC CG win over GA).
