if Romney performs poorly in the debates then I would agree, otherwise I still look for the race to tighten as we get closer to the election but it's Obama's to lose at this point
anything four points or less is within the margin of error so theoretically you are correct. that said, if you take just the states that have averaged more than the margin of error, meaning five points or more, it leaves Obama with 275 electoral votes and a victory by taking Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada. Romney has to pick off one of those states and the easiest would be Nevada because unemployment is higher there than anywhere in the nation.
I agree, it affects such a small percentage of people that it doesn't really matter. However, this year, I am going to go to the polls and refuse to show my id. I'm really kind of curious to see how it works out.
Another note on margin of error. It pisses me off when CNN and others say, Obama up by 3 points which is within the polls margin or error so it's tied. That's not what that means. That means it could be tied, or obama could be up 6 points. However, when it's the same goddam thing every week, obama by 3 points, obama by 2.7 points, obama by 3.7 points, its pretty safe to say that Obama has the lead. It is definitely not a tie.
You should give and update NC after these debates. From the news I hear that Mitt has gained some good ground.
should concentrate on the electoral college and the swing states, not a national poll of likely voters. Im not arguing for either candidate but thats how you should read elections.
