It's too close. I'm not putting much into it, because there isn't going to be much, if any, movement in the computer polls. It's tough to predict what the voters will do.
With him projecting it, I'd at least be hopeful and optimistic if I were a Texas fan. He is the guru when it comes to the BCS. I was surprised to see the projection so I would tend to believe he would not be so bold unless he was fairly certain. Good Luck.
I can only imagine what is going on behind the scenes in Texas and at the Pac-10 offices. The Rose Bowl is going to want Cal, though, so there is pressure from them as well.
No way Texas pasts Cal. And bank on it. Take all your money and put it on Cal. Call your bookie now. Oh, sorry, I was having a Ramah moment just then. But seriously, there is little chance. Actually Cal will gain on Texas in the computer polls this week, making the margin greater than last week. Which boils down to more voters having to switch their votes from Cal to Texas being 4th ranked. Not gonna happen. Auburn had to lose to Tennessee for any possible chance of Texas surpassing Cal and that didn't happen. My projections: ............. KM...JS...RB...ST....PW..WC Texas......4......4....4.....5.....4......4 = .88 Cal..........5......5....10...6......5.....6 = .82 RB (Billingsley), ST (Anderson/Hester) and WC (Colley) are locked in. The only question marks are KM (Massey), JS (Sagarin) and PW (Wolfe). I don't have access to Massey's site (KM) so I am speculating that the victory by Cal moves them past Utah but not past Texas. If somebody can give me the numbers just on those 3 teams (UT, Utah, Cal) from last week, it would be greatly appreciated. So worst case is Cal remains at 6 in KM. The key poll in all of this is Jeff Sagarin. Right now, Cal lies 6th but just behind #5 Utah and #4 Texas. They have a chance to actually surpass Texas as well, giving Texas a second #5 finish. This causes their computer poll avg. to come down to .87. That would seal the deal for sure. Right now Texas is looking to gain a .10 advantage from last week in the computer polls over Cal. Last week had Texas at .88 and Cal at .80. It just needs to shift .10 with either Texas going up (not going to happen now that all top 3 teams won), or Cal going down (again not likely since Cal won against a 6-4 team). The Southern Miss victory over UAB last week looks to be the backbreaker for Texas (would have had a 5-5 record instead, hurting Cal's SOS and scoring in every computer poll that uses it). Using a Texas = .88, Cal = .80 Computer poll aggregate Texas needs to gain 3 points total between the AP and Coaches poll combined (Texas +3, Cal -3). Approximately 2 1/2 % of the voters. Using a Texas = .88, Cal = .81 Computer Poll aggregate OR Using a Texas = .87, Cal = .80 Computer Poll aggregate Texas needs to gain 12 points total between the AP and Coaches poll combined (Texas +12, Cal - 12). Approximately 10 % of the voters. Using a Texas = .87, Cal = .81 Computer poll aggregate OR Using a Texas = .88, Cal = .82 Computer poll aggregate Texas needs to gain 19 points total between the AP and Coaches poll combined (Texas +19, Cal -19). Approximately 16 % of the voters. Texas could very well get the 3 points needed in the first scenario, but the likelihood that the voters shift 12 total points around or more, as needed in the last 2 scenarios, just isn't in the cards.
